ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Soars to 52-Week Peak After Major Analyst Upgrade

Key Highlights

• ON Semiconductor reached a 52-week peak of $99.64, surging 145% year-over-year
• B. Riley elevated the rating to Buy, boosting the price target from $64 to $115
• Analyst Craig Ellis sees the cyclical downturn in the rearview mirror
• First quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for May 4, with revenue projections of $1.435B–$1.535B
• Lead times for Onsemi MOSFET products now extend to 26 weeks, according to Baird research

ON Semiconductor has delivered an impressive rally. Shares peaked at $99.64 this week, marking a fresh 52-week high and extending a remarkable 145% surge over the past twelve months.

ON Semiconductor Corporation, ON

The rally gained momentum after B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis elevated the stock to Buy from Neutral, increasing the firm’s price objective from $64 to $115—nearly doubling the previous target.

Ellis issued the upgrade in anticipation of ON’s first quarter 2026 financial results, scheduled for release on May 4. His investment thesis centers on the belief that the cyclical decline has concluded, while the company’s strategic emphasis on power semiconductors, silicon carbide technology for electric vehicles, and industrial automation solutions creates favorable conditions for expansion.

This represents one of the boldest bullish calls on a domestic semiconductor manufacturer this season. Shares were changing hands near $98 when Ellis published his analysis.

BofA Securities recently joined the bullish camp, upgrading ON to Buy and highlighting the company’s artificial intelligence innovations, the Treo platform, and a freshly approved $6 billion stock repurchase authorization extending through three years.

CEO Hassane El-Khoury has indicated the organization is observing “increasing signs of stabilization” across core business segments—commentary that reinforces the optimistic narrative analysts are constructing.

Financial Performance and Outlook

Fiscal year 2025 revenue totaled $5.995 billion, representing a 15% decline from the prior year. However, despite the revenue contraction, free cash flow reached an all-time high of $1.418 billion.

First quarter 2026 projections anticipate revenue ranging from $1.435 billion to $1.535 billion, accompanied by earnings per share between $0.56 and $0.66. These figures indicate sequential improvement—exactly what investors have been anticipating.

The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 307x, appearing elevated at first glance. However, the forward P/E of 31x captures the earnings rebound that Wall Street is factoring into valuations.

The company’s market capitalization hovers around $35 billion. Current analyst sentiment remains divided: 11 Buy recommendations compared to 23 Hold ratings.

InvestingPro analysis identifies the stock as trading above its Fair Value calculation, positioning it among the market’s most richly valued equities currently.

Strengthening Supply Dynamics

An additional favorable trend is emerging beneath the surface. Baird’s research indicates that semiconductor lead times are expanding across various product categories.

Industry-wide MOSFET lead times currently average 25 weeks. For Onsemi’s MOSFET portfolio specifically, delivery times have extended to 26 weeks—evidence that customer demand is outpacing manufacturing capacity.

This supply-demand imbalance typically supports enhanced pricing leverage, which could drive gross margin expansion from the 38% non-GAAP floor experienced during the previous downturn.

Challenges persist, however. Barclays highlighted ON’s significant automotive and China market exposure when launching coverage with an Equal-Weight stance.

Insider transactions deserve attention as well. CFO stock sales in April introduce a cautionary element to an otherwise optimistic narrative.

Investor focus now shifts to May 4, when ON Semiconductor unveils its first quarter 2026 performance. The earnings announcement will serve as the critical validation point for the stabilization thesis that’s driving current optimism.

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