Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Confirmation Moves Forward After GOP Senator Lifts Block

Key Takeaways

• Republican Senator Thom Tillis has withdrawn his opposition to Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve chair nomination following the conclusion of a DOJ investigation into Jerome Powell
• The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on Warsh’s confirmation on April 29, with a full Senate floor vote potentially occurring the week of May 11
• Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair concludes May 15; Warsh may assume the role shortly after Senate approval
• Financial markets indicate a 99% likelihood the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% during the April 28–29 policy meeting
• Market projections suggest no rate reductions until September 2027, based on CME FedWatch analysis

The path to Federal Reserve leadership has cleared significantly for Kevin Warsh after a critical Republican lawmaker withdrew his opposition to the nomination.

North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis announced Sunday that he would no longer obstruct Warsh’s confirmation proceedings. The senator had previously stalled the nomination due to an ongoing Department of Justice inquiry into current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concerning a multibillion-dollar headquarters renovation project.

With the DOJ having concluded its three-month investigation, Tillis felt comfortable moving forward. In a statement posted on X, the senator described the investigation as “a serious threat to the Fed’s independence” and emphasized that its resolution was necessary before he could support the nomination.

As a member of the Senate Banking Committee, Tillis’s support carries significant weight. The committee has scheduled its confirmation vote for April 29.

Following committee approval, the nomination will advance to the full Senate chamber. While no official date has been announced, sources indicate a floor vote could take place during the week of May 11.

Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair officially ends on May 15. Should Warsh receive Senate confirmation, he could be sworn in within days of Powell’s departure.

While Powell retains eligibility to serve on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors through 2028, historical patterns suggest he may opt for retirement once his chairmanship concludes.

Federal Reserve Rate Expectations

The upcoming April 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will mark Powell’s final gathering as chair. Market participants anticipate a steady course.

According to CME Group FedWatch data, there is a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current rate range of 3.50%–3.75%. The likelihood of a rate increase stands at merely 1%.

Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, anticipates the Fed will maintain its current messaging, signaling policymakers’ intention to hold rates steady for a considerable duration.

Market pricing does not reflect anticipated rate cuts until September 2027. At that juncture, there exists a 38.6% probability of rates declining to the 3.25%–3.50% range.

Global tensions, particularly developments involving Iran, are creating additional economic headwinds. Rising energy prices are fueling inflationary pressures, while economic uncertainty is dampening corporate investment appetite.

Warsh’s Views on Cryptocurrency and Monetary Policy

Warsh has traditionally been characterized as hawkish regarding monetary policy. This orientation generally favors maintaining elevated interest rates for extended periods, which tends to negatively impact risk-oriented assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Nevertheless, Warsh has recently emphasized his commitment to Federal Reserve independence, stating that President Trump has not attempted to influence his views on interest rate policy.

Regarding digital assets, Warsh disclosed holdings in over 30 cryptocurrency projects, including notable positions in Solana and the decentralized trading platform dYdX.

Warsh has also expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s substantial holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, a portfolio expansion that originated from the 2008 financial crisis response.

The April 29 Senate Banking Committee vote represents the initial formal milestone in his confirmation journey.

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