'End of Trumpism': Focus on 'hardcore MAGA Republicans' obscures brutal reality for Trump

In recent months, President Donald Trump has seen many high-profile defections over the war in Iran, the mishandling of the Epstein files, the dismal economic situation and more, drawing criticism from the likes of longtime allies like Alex Jones, Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and others. Trump has been dismissive of such critiques, shrugging off those who have expressed dissent as “not ‘MAGA,’ they’re losers, just trying to latch on to MAGA.” But according to political analyst Emma Ashford, the president is ignoring a key fact: that he was not brought to power by “hardcore MAGA Republicans,” but rather by a broad coalition of support that’s eroding fast.

As Ashford explains, most of the Trump voters who backed him in 2024 did so out of “American First” priorities like avoiding foreign wars and addressing the cost of living crisis at home. Now, with no end in sight to the conflict in Iran, which is inflicting severe economic consequences domestically and around the world, Americans have made it clear that they don’t want this war, with polling consistently showing that roughly 66 percent of voters are against it.

This has been highly consequential for the Trump coalition, because while about 90 percent of self-identified MAGA voters say they support the war, Trump’s electoral base is actually comprised of many other types of voters. According to research, MAGA voters only accounted for 30 percent of Trump’s electorate in the 2024 election. And now, Trump’s other essential backers — such as white, non-college-educated voters and the “reluctant right” — indicate far less support for the war.

While this might not mean much electorally speaking for Trump, who is a lame duck president, it could suggest blowback against Republicans in the upcoming midterms, or for future presidential hopefuls like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, whose fates have become increasingly linked to the war and their unpopular boss. As conservative journalist and Trump supporter Chris Caldwell asserts, “The attack on Iran is so wildly inconsistent with the wishes of his own base, so diametrically opposed to their reading of the national interest, that it is likely to mark the end of Trumpism as a project.”

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