Opendoor (OPEN) Stock: Housing Turnaround Bet or Too Risky?

TLDR

• Opendoor’s full-year 2025 revenue fell to $4.37B, down from $5.15B in 2024
• The company posted a net loss of $1.3B for full-year 2025
• Home purchases rose 46% quarter-over-quarter, showing early signs of a rebuild
• Wall Street holds a Reduce consensus with an average price target of $4.48
• Management is targeting breakeven adjusted net income by end of 2026

Opendoor has become one of the more closely watched names in housing. Not because it’s thriving, but because it’s attempting a comeback in one of the toughest housing markets in recent memory.

Opendoor Technologies Inc., OPEN

The business is simple in concept. Opendoor buys homes directly from sellers, makes light repairs, and flips them quickly. That model needs affordable financing, stable prices, and a liquid housing market. Right now, it’s getting none of those in full.

Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $4.37 billion, down from $5.15 billion the year before. Homes sold dropped to 11,791 for the year, and homes purchased fell to 8,241. Inventory ended the year at 2,867 homes worth $925 million, compared to 6,417 homes and $2.16 billion a year earlier.

That’s a meaningful pullback. But management is framing it as a deliberate reset.

CEO Kaz Nejatian has called this phase “Opendoor 2.0,” focused on better unit economics, faster inventory turns, and stronger direct-to-consumer relationships. The target is breakeven adjusted net income by end of 2026 on a rolling 12-month basis.

Early Signs of Progress

There are some green shoots. Homes purchased jumped 46% from the prior quarter. Weekly acquisition contracts more than quadrupled from the end of Q3 2025 to the most recent week management reported.

Contribution margin has also been improving each month since September. The company expects to exit Q1 2026 with its best contribution margin since Q2 2024.

Still, Opendoor posted a net loss of $1.3 billion for the full year and an adjusted net loss of $195 million. Q4 adjusted EBITDA came in at -$43 million. Management guided Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss to the low-to-mid $30 million range — better, but not fixed.

The Housing Market Isn’t Helping

The macro picture is still a headwind. Mortgage rates remain near 6%, and pending home sales in March were still down 1.1% from a year ago, according to Reuters. The market isn’t frozen, but it isn’t moving fast enough to take pressure off a transaction-driven business like Opendoor.

There’s also a trust overhang. In 2025, Opendoor agreed to pay $39 million to settle a securities class action linked to claims about its pricing technology. The company denied wrongdoing, but it’s a reminder of how quickly things can go sideways if pricing or execution slips.

Wall Street is still skeptical. Opendoor carries a Reduce consensus rating on MarketBeat, based on 3 sells, 3 holds, and 1 buy across 7 analyst ratings. The average 12-month price target sits at $4.48 — below where the stock has recently traded.

Final Thoughts

Opendoor has made real progress cutting inventory risk and tightening its model. But it’s still losing money, still exposed to mortgage rate swings, and still unproven at scale in a weak market. OPEN is less a stable housing play and more a speculative recovery trade. The most recent data point — management guiding to a narrower EBITDA loss in Q1 2026 — is the number worth watching next.

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