Trump gets blunt fact check from oil experts on 'explosive' claim: 'Not how it works'

President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Iran by predicting that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will soon cause catastrophic damage to Tehran's oil infrastructure, but energy experts and analysts widely dispute these claims as unrealistic.

Trump told reporters at the White House last Thursday: "If they don't get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode." During a Fox News appearance Sunday, he escalated the rhetoric, stating that Iranian oil pipelines "both mechanically and in the earth" would "explode from within" if exports don't resume soon. "They say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never rebuild it the way it was," Trump said.

However, energy scholars and industry analysts strongly challenge these predictions, reported the Washington Post. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at the Defense Priorities think tank, stated flatly: "That is not how it works. Nothing is going to self destruct." Mark Finley, a fellow in energy and global oil at Rice University's Baker Institute, countered that "Iran has proven it knows how to keep its system operating," noting that abundant empty tankers and domestic refining networks provide viable alternatives to strait exports.

Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy concluded in a Tuesday analysis that even if Iran exhausts storage capacity, it "will not cause catastrophic, or even very serious, damage" to its oil industry. While shut-in operations — where water and gas contaminate reservoirs — can cause long-term damage, explosions are not a known consequence.

Shipping data from TankerTrackers.com shows approximately 45 million barrels of storage capacity exists in empty tankers within the blockade perimeter, equivalent to six weeks of Iran's usual export production. Iran also maintains millions of barrels in inland storage capacity, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed Monday that Iranian production was already slowing, writing on X: "Iran's creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE." A Treasury Department spokesperson stated that Kharg Island, Iran's primary export hub, was approaching storage capacity at a cost of roughly $170 million daily in lost revenue.

Despite expert skepticism, Trump's predictions represent the latest in a series of shifting administration claims about ending the conflict. As gas prices have surged to $4.23 per gallon from under $3 before the February war's onset, Americans face mounting economic pressures from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure.