Ford (F) Stock Drops After Crushing Q1 Earnings — Here’s Why

TLDR

• Ford Q1 operating profit hit $3.5B, smashing Wall Street’s $1.3B estimate
• Revenue came in at $43.3B, above the $42.7B forecast
• Ford raised its 2026 operating profit guidance to $8.5B–$10.5B
• Stock rose 7% after hours but slipped back, falling ~1% in regular trading
• UBS cut its price target to $14 from $15, trimming its 2027 EPS forecast by ~10%

Ford beat Wall Street’s Q1 earnings estimate by a wide margin, but the stock couldn’t hold its gains.

The company reported a Q1 operating profit of $3.5 billion on revenue of $43.3 billion. Analysts had expected an operating profit of just $1.3 billion on revenue of $42.7 billion. A year ago, Ford posted operating profit of $1 billion on $40.7 billion in revenue.

EPS came in at $0.66, against a forecast of $0.19 — a beat of over 247%.

The results included a $1.3 billion tariff benefit. Even stripping that out, the underlying performance was well ahead of expectations.

Ford Motor Company, F

The stock initially jumped more than 7% in after-hours trading, climbing above $13. But the rally faded fast. By Thursday, Ford was trading around $12.12–$12.24, down roughly 1%.

The Truck Factor

The strength came from product mix. Ford CFO Sherry House pointed out that Ford’s trucks skew toward higher-income buyers, which helped cushion the impact of rising costs.

Higher-end off-road and performance trims made up nearly 25% of total U.S. sales in the quarter. That premium mix helped offset headwinds from tariffs, commodity prices, and supplier costs.

Ford is also dealing with aluminum supply disruptions following a fire at Novelis’ Oswego plant in New York last September. That’s an ongoing constraint on production.

Inflation added an incremental $1 billion in costs during the quarter. But Ford managed to work around it.

Quality improvements are also contributing. Ford is still on track to cut quality-related costs by $1 billion in 2026. JD Power ranked Ford No. 4 in its 2026 U.S. customer service index — the automaker’s best result in nearly 30 years.

Guidance and the UBS Cut

Ford raised its full-year 2026 operating profit guidance to $8.5 billion–$10.5 billion, up from the prior range of $8 billion–$10 billion. In 2025, Ford posted $6.8 billion in operating profit, down from $10.2 billion in 2024.

The guidance hike was modest, and the company flagged it doesn’t account for a potential U.S. economic downturn or an escalation in Middle East conflict.

That caution may be part of why investors weren’t impressed.

UBS followed up Thursday by cutting its Ford price target to $14 from $15, while keeping a Buy rating. The firm trimmed its 2027 EPS forecast by about 10% to $1.88, citing higher commodity costs that are increasingly eating into the benefits from the Novelis situation.

UBS now pegs Ford’s 2027 earnings base at $9.75 billion — roughly $1 billion below prior expectations. The path to $2 in EPS has been pushed out by a year.

The firm still sees longer-term upside from battery energy storage systems and higher-margin Pro software, though that timeline has also shifted out by 12 months.

Coming into Wednesday, Ford stock was down 5% year-to-date and up 24% over the past 12 months. GM, which also beat Q1 estimates and raised guidance, rose 1.3% on Tuesday after its report.

Ford currently trades at $12.24.

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