Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil supply amid UAE OPEC+ exit

## Market Snapshot

Crude Oil Price Predictions by June market is currently showing a 100% likelihood of crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June. This reflects a consistent trend across all active sub-markets, with no deviation in pricing.

## Key Takeaways

– The upcoming OPEC+ meeting appears to suggest an increased probability of production quota adjustments, following the UAE’s departure. – Market pricing indicates a scenario where geopolitical tensions could lead to reduced production capacity and higher oil prices. – The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran suggests potential further disruptions in oil supply, consistent with increased price expectations.

## Article Body

OPEC+ is set to convene for the first time since the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) withdrawal from the group, amid a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The UAE announced its departure from both OPEC and OPEC+ on April 28, citing frustrations over production quotas. This decision, effective May 1, 2026, comes as the US-Israel conflict with Iran further strains regional stability. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated supply constraints, impacting nearly 2 million barrels per day of UAE production. This departure has raised concerns about reduced spare capacity within OPEC+, potentially increasing the burden on Saudi Arabia to stabilize the market.

## Market Interpretation

The market interpretation of this news is supportive of a YES outcome for the prediction that crude oil will reach $90 by the end of June. The impact of the UAE’s withdrawal, combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, suggests a high likelihood of increased oil prices due to potential disruptions in supply. This is consistent with a high impact scenario, as indicated by market pricing.

## What to Watch

Key developments to monitor include OPEC+’s production quota decision and any further geopolitical actions affecting oil supply chains. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Alexander Novak will be pivotal figures in these discussions. Additionally, any US Federal Reserve announcements or updates from energy agencies like the EIA and IEA could further influence market dynamics. Watch for any statements regarding production adjustments or strategic responses to the UAE’s departure and the ongoing conflict.

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