XRP Is Losing Ground to USD and Crashing Against BTC: Ripple Price Analysis

XRP is trading at $1.39 as the first week of May comes to an end. It is holding roughly flat in dollar terms while the broader market stirs with renewed momentum. Bitcoin’s recent push has provided a rising tide that is keeping Ripple’s token from making new USDT lows, but strip away that macro tailwind and the picture is considerably less comfortable.

Against Bitcoin, XRP has just broken below a support level that held throughout the past couple of months, printing its weakest relative performance of the entire corrective cycle.

XRP Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

On the USDT pair, XRP remains inside the long-term descending channel and is currently trading just below the higher boundary of the channel. The 100-day MA at approximately $1.40 and the channel’s upper boundary continue to compress overhead, while the 200-day MA has declined into the $1.80 supply zone. This creates a dense ceiling that the price has not seriously threatened yet. The RSI also sits at roughly 50, flat and offering no directional signal.

The immediate support to watch is the $1.20 February low, which is critical to hold for the buyers. To the upside, the $1.40-$1.50 zone is the first meaningful test, with the $1.80 supply zone representing the level where the structural picture would genuinely begin to change. Neither looks imminent, given the current momentum picture.

The BTC Pair

The more consequential development is on the BTC pair. XRP/BTC has slipped to 1,771 sats, breaking below the 1,800 sat February low. That breach is not a marginal miss. It confirms that XRP is now making new cycle lows relative to Bitcoin precisely at the moment BTC is recovering most convincingly, underscoring the divergence between the two assets. The RSI has dropped to the oversold, pointing to the significantly bearish momentum dominating the market.

With the floor now broken, the next meaningful support sits at the 1600 sat zone, which is the lower boundary of the descending channel. The 100-day MA at ~2,000 sats and the 200-day MA at ~2,100 sats both remain far overhead and declining. A genuine reversal on XRP/BTC requires, at minimum, a recovery above the 1,800 sats area, and right now there are no significant signs to suggest that reclaim is coming.

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