Leaked CIA memo reveals true extent of Iran's leverage in firefight: report

A bombshell CIA memo distributed to administration policymakers the week revealed that Iran is in a far stronger military and economic position than President Trump has publicly claimed — directly contradicting the president's rosy assessments about the state of the war.

According to a Washington Post report, the leaked classified intelligence assessment found that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing severe economic hardship — significantly longer than the White House has suggested.

More critically, the Post is reporting, the CIA determined that Tehran retains substantial ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment. Iran has maintained approximately 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, according to a U.S. official familiar with the assessment.

The intelligence community found evidence that the Iranian regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began, the report notes.

The CIA's more sobering assessment stands in sharp contrast to Trump's public statements. On Wednesday, Trump claimed Iran's missile capabilities had been devastated, telling reporters: "Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had."

The president's claim that Iran retains only 18-19 percent of its original missile inventory directly contradicts the intelligence community's findings that Tehran maintains around 70-75 percent.

One U.S. official who spoke to the Post suggested the CIA estimate may even be optimistic about Iran's vulnerability. "The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance" inside Iran.

"Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars," the official told the Post and suggested that Iran could endure prolonged economic hardship far longer than the administration has publicly indicated.

Three current and one former U.S. official confirmed the intelligence assessment's outlines to the Post, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.