Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally to $82,000 appears to be cooling off, and analysts say key levels must be reclaimed for BTC price to “confirm a durable continuation higher.”
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin must break resistance at $85,000-$88,000 to confirm that the bottom is in.
- Profit-taking on rallies must cool down for a sustained breakout in BTC price.
Bitcoin must reclaim $88,000 as support
Bitcoin’s 7% climb over the last week to $81,000 saw it reclaim key levels, including the true market mean at $78,200 and short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $79,100.
If the price sustains above these two levels, the 50% drawdown from the $126,000 all-time high to sub-$60,000 levels in February “would rank among the shortest episodes of its kind in Bitcoin market history,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:
Bitcoin risk indicator. Source: Glassnode
The last time Bitcoin reclaimed its active realized price, in October 2023, it was followed by a 170% rally to its previous all-time high of $74,000 reached in March 2024. These gains increased to 365% once the price hit its current record highs above $126,000.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands push key breakout as creator acts on ‘positive’ signal
Bitcoin’s realized price by age cohorts reveals other major levels of resistance sitting higher up: the realized price of the three-to-six-month investor cohort at $88,880, the 12-month-18-month cost basis at $93,450 and the average purchase price of the six-to-12-month investor cohort at $111,850.
“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear $88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail,” CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech said in a Thursday Quicktake note, adding:
Bitcoin realized price – UTXO age bands. Source: CryptoQuant
A sustained move above that level could put recent buyers back in profit and reduce sell pressure, confirming a “durable continuation higher,” Glassnode added.
Analyst MikybullCrypto highlighted Bitcoin’s core levels of resistance before a “mega solid trend change,” including $88,000 and $92,000, based on Fibonacci level analysis.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: MikybullCrypto
Profit-taking by long-term holders could delay BTC price recovery
Bitcoin’s current pullback below $81,000 could be attributed to increased profit-taking by long-term holders.
Additionally, the 14-day simple moving average of profit realized by investors who have held BTC for more than one year has increased to about $180 million per day following the recent rally.
Should the current recovery continue, “this distribution pressure is likely to intensify,” Glassnode said, adding:
Bitcoin realized profit by age. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, realized losses remain elevated at $479 million per day, approximately 140% above the $200 million per day cycle baseline.
A sustained compression of this indicator below $200 million per day would serve as a strong indicator that selling exhaustion is setting in and confirm a “more durable recovery regime,” Glassnode said, adding:
Bitcoin realized loss. Source: Glassnode
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-analysts-say-this-level-must-break-btc-price-confirm-bottom?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
