Why Bitcoin Price Could Reach $88,000 Despite Rising Odds Of Fed Rate Hikes

Bitcoin (BTC) price might reach $88,000 because it is currently 11.2% lower than the ETF Flow Impact Score (EFIS). But the move here is facing an obstacle of a potential increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The odds of this happening are now at 49% despite Kevin Warsh taking over the helm of the Fed after Jerome Powell’s term ends today, May 15. Bitcoin traded at $80,069 at the time of writing with a 0.35% gain.

Odds of Fed Rate Hikes Soar as Jerome Powell’s Tenure Ends

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that there is a 49% chance that the Fed will increase interest rates between October and December 2026.

26.7% expect the Fed to increase rates by 25 basis points in October, while 2.8% expect a 50% hike. As for December, 38% expect a 25% basis point hike while 9% expect a 50 basis point increase.

These increasing odds come even as Powell, who has been criticized by President Donald Trump for not trimming rates, ends his tenure today, May 15. After Powell leaves, Kevin Warsh will take over. Powell’s departure has not affected Bitcoin price because it traded at $80,415 at the time of writing after a 1.46% increase.

The recent rise in inflation to 3.8% in April, the highest level in three years, is behind this belief that rates are going to go up. The US-Iran war is still going on, and oil prices are still high, which means the rates might not remain between 3.50 and 3.75% for the rest of 2026.

On-Chain Data Signals Bitcoin Price Rally to $88,000

A hike in interest rates is net negative for Bitcoin because it means people will shy away from risk. But the 49% chance that the Fed is going to become hawkish has not dimmed the chances of Bitcoin reaching $88,000.

Analyst Crazyblokk has used the ETF Flow Impact Score to say that Bitcoin is undervalued, and it might go to $88,000. because of demand coming from institutions.

But the analyst says that this model cannot be used for a long-term Bitcoin price forecast because bears are beckoning BTC to fall to $70,000.

The analyst’s remarks that institutions are flocking to Bitcoin mirrors what Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said earlier, that Bitcoin ETFs have $13 billion more inflows than gold.

Balchunas said that since March, BlackRock’s IBIT has seen $4.2 billion in new cash, and the gold trust has seen $9 billion in outflows. That means IBIT is performing better than the gold trust by 33 points.

Bullish Pattern Remains Intact as BTC Price Tests Support

Bitcoin will get to $88,000 if it can hold support at $79,360. This was previously resistance, but it closed above it last week. But going above $79,360 last week does not mean Bitcoin price is out of the woods just yet because it needs to make two more consecutive closes above it.

This support at $79,360 stands out because it was the neckline of a rounding bottom. A previous CoinGape Bitcoin price analysis had detected this bottom before last week’s breakout, saying once bulls can confirm that the resistance at $79,360 is now support, BTC might reach $96,000.

The MACD on the weekly has a bullish reading because the histograms are green and rising. The price might reach $88,000 because this reading confirms a positive momentum. The MACD line is moving above the signal, confirming that the $79,360 support might hold.

But bears might still want to pull the price to $70,000, and the ADX line that is tipping south warns that bulls are weak. The ADX needs to tip north to confirm there is a strong momentum that will push Bitcoin price to $88,000.