Polymarket wallets earned $2.4M with 98% win rate on military bets

Blockchain data platform Bubblemaps has uncovered a cluster of nine wallets on Polymarket that collectively made $2.4 million with a 98% win rate. These accounts focused on contracts tied to US military operations, and their timing raised red flags.

According to a Monday X post from Bubblemaps, all major bets were placed just before key military events. These included the Feb. 28 attack on Iran, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The wallets were funded through centralized crypto exchanges within a tight timeframe. Some small losing bets were made on Feb. 20, which Bubblemaps suggested might have been an attempt to avoid drawing attention.

Four of the accounts each earned around $400,000 from bets that the US would strike Iran on Feb. 28. The findings point to what Bubblemaps calls an “unfair informational advantage.”

Growing concerns over insider trading

The investigation highlights ongoing worries about insider trading on decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told Cointelegraph that while there is no definitive proof the accounts belonged to insiders, the onchain trail is “symptomatic of someone with an unfair informational advantage.”

This is not an isolated incident. In early March, six Polymarket traders netted $1 million by betting on the US strike against Iran. Lawmakers have taken notice.

New legislation aims at war-related contracts

On March 10, US Democratic Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act. The bill seeks to ban federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and individual deaths. The proposal came shortly after the $1 million Polymarket win.

Separately, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order in late March. It targets public servants who might trade on prediction markets using inside information about political or economic events they can influence.

Market size and context

Politics-related contracts currently rank as the third-largest category on Polymarket, accounting for 12% of notional trading volume. On Kalshi, they are fifth-largest, with about 0.7% of weekly trading volume, according to Dune data. The CFTC has also eased event contract reporting rules via a no-action letter, which may affect how these markets are monitored.

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