Polymarket War Bets Raise Alarm After $2.4M Win Streak

Nine connected Polymarket accounts made more than US$2.4 million (AU$3.34 million) betting on US military actions, according to a CBS/60 Minutes investigation with Bubblemaps that has intensified national-security concerns around prediction markets.

In an interview with CoinDesk, Bubblemaps said the accounts placed more than 80 bets and recorded a 98% win rate. CBS reported the anonymous traders won markets tied to specific Iran-war milestones, including the first US strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.

The findings are not a court ruling that insider trading occurred. They are blockchain-forensic claims that the timing, coordination and accuracy of the accounts were unusual enough to warrant scrutiny.

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War Markets Scrutinised

Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman told CBS that luck alone could not explain the numbers. CBS also reported that more than US$1 billion (AU$1.39 billion) has been staked online this year on military decisions and outcomes, creating a market where nonpublic information could carry direct financial value.

Similarly, Bubblemaps investigator Deebs, a former US military officer, told CBS that foreign adversaries could watch irregular betting flows and use them to infer strategy, timing or sensitive operational details.

Polymarket told CBS it has market-integrity rules, AI-powered surveillance and blockchain forensics, and that suspicious activity can lead to law-enforcement referrals. The company said insider trading is not welcome and that users who attempt it will be identified.

The episode lands as US lawmakers are already trying to curb war and death markets. Rep. Mike Levin introduced the DEATH BETS Act, H.R. 7942, in March to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts tied to terrorism, assassination, war or an individual’s death.

Senators John Hickenlooper and Chris Murphy also introduced the BETS OFF Act, which targets wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. Senators Catherine Cortez Masto, Adam Schiff and colleagues separately urged the CFTC to halt contracts involving physical injury, death or war.

The legal pressure increased after prosecutors charged US Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke in April with allegedly using classified information to win Polymarket bets on a Maduro raid. He pleaded not guilty.

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