MANILA, Philippines — In visiting Japan for the third time as Philippine President, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is surrounded by the familiar. Marcos had already met Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae four times in the seven months she’s been in office. 

Marcos and his wife, First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos had also met, albeit less formally, with Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako before — in early 2023, during an official visit to Japan. 

His priorities will also be much the same — to bring bilateral ties closer with the goal of improving the Philippines’ own security, economic, and geopolitical agendas. 

But what makes Marcos’ 2026 visit to Japan different, aside from the fact that it’s a rare state visit, would be the world that backdrops it: a global oil supply and price crisis that’s brought Philippine economic numbers down and has meant financial struggle for many Filipinos, and an ally whose actions triggered all this chaos in the first place. 

“This state visit to Japan is essential amid an increasingly challenging and evolving global environment,” said Marcos on Tuesday, May 26, ahead of departing for the four-day trip. 

“This visit seeks to further strengthen the bonds of friendship with a close neighbor, like-minded, 
and future-oriented just like us in many ways, 
and a most reliable partner in times of both prosperity and times of uncertainty, such as today’s ongoing oil crisis,” he added. 

In Japan, Marcos is expected to meet again with the Emperor and Empress. The two heads of state will be exchanging honors during this meeting. The Emperor and Empress will present to Marcos the Grand Cordon of the Supreme Order of the Chrysanthemum and to the First Lady, the Grand Cordon of the
Order of the Precious Crown. 

In turn, Marcos will bestow on the Emperor the Order of Lakandula with the rank of  Supremo while the Empress will receive the Order of Gabriela Silang — the two highest honors a civilian may receive from the Philippines.

Marcos is also set to meet with Takaichi for a “comprehensive discussion on various issues
and explore ways to strengthen our bilateral coordination and cooperation.” He is also reportedly set to deliver a rare speech to the Diet or the Japanese parliament, and hold meetings with Japanese businesses. 

Following Marcos’ meeting with Takaichi, the two countries are expected to announce several agreements, including the start of negotiations for a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) similar to that which Manila already has with the United States. 

The two countries are also expected to hash out the details of how Japan can assist the Philippines in its efforts to be more energy resilient, including the possible creation of a storage facility within the country.  

Japan-PH ties 

Japan holds a special place in the long and growing list of the Philippines’ partners and allies, both old and new. The Philippines sources most of its Official Development Assistance from Japan. 

The Philippine-Japan Strategic Partnership which, for the longest time, was the only one of its kind, has also meant Tokyo taking on a huge role in a plethora of areas — from agriculture, energy and decarbonization, maritime cooperation, trade and investment, infrastructure, defense and security, space technology, and also the development of Mindanao. 

At least three of those areas will weigh heaviest during Marcos’ visit to Japan — energy security, defense and security, and peace in the Bangsamoro. 

Of the three, it’s the latter two that the two countries have always had rich discussions on, aside from investments in the Philippines. Energy security is relatively newer, driven primarily by the oil supply and price crisis triggered by the United States and Israel’s war on Iran and the subsequent disruptions on the stability and flow of oil and petroleum from the gulf. 

Asia is most affected by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war on Iran, more than 80% of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas that passed through that narrow strait went to Asia. 

The Philippines is also among those worst hit in a region that’s felt the bulk of the oil crisis pain. Before the war, Manila got almost all of its crude oil and petroleum products from the Middle East. 

Marcos and his administration have been scrambling since March 2026 to find alternative sources of energy. 

In mid-April, Japan announced a $10 billion fund meant to help other Asian countries — particularly those in Southeast Asia — deal with the oil crisis. The details of this fund, including how it’s to be spent in each country, have yet to be fleshed out. 

Security, peace ties 

From late April to early May, over 1,400 combat troops from the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) were deployed across the country for the annual Balikatan, or the war games between the United States and the Philippines. It was the first deployment of combat troops since Japan and the Philippines signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and the first since World War II — back when, of course, Manila and Tokyo were on opposing sides.  

The signing of the RAA and deployment of the JSDF, of course, did not happen overnight. Steadily, the security and defense ties of the two countries have been growing stronger. 

Japan picked the Philippines to be the first-ever recipient of its Official Security Assistance (OSA). The Philippines’ coastal radar systems are from Japan — key assets to improve its maritime domain awareness and coastal defense efforts. 

Almost all of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG)’s newest vessels are from Japan, with more patrol vessels arriving in coming years. 

Japan has been a reliable ally to the Philippines in decrying Chinese actions in the West Philippine Sea, or areas of the South China Sea within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and in areas that it claims. Manila, too, has consistently expressed concern over China’s activities in the East China Sea close to Japan. 

Manila has benefited much from the partnership, according to analysts who closely monitor the Philippines’ defense network and military modernization push.

“The Philippines greatly benefits from Japan’s capacity-building initiatives, particularly on maritime security, and Japan’s presence in the recent (and next iterations of) Balikatan and other exercises helps the Philippines in increasing interoperability and operational readiness,” they told Rappler. 

Interoperability and operational readiness means the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) capacity to work alongside its partner and allied militaries in the event of a crisis — be it in war inside or beyond the Philippines, humanitarian crisis, or China’ gray zone activities at sea. 

“In turn, this partnership bolsters Japan’s increased willingness to take a proactive role in regional security,” they added. 

Working together also means sending a strong signal across the region. Experts are certain the message will find its way to Beijing, too. “Stronger ties between both countries sends a strong signal to China that its unilateral coercive activity is not welcome in the region, and that its neighbors are building both their own capacities, and jointly with other like-minded countries,” they told Rappler. 

Joshua Espeña, a lecturer at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines and research fellow at the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, said the Manila-Tokyo connection can go beyond “military areas of cooperation to bolster a workable collective deterrence between them.” 

“It is likely for both sides to explore defense industrial links to support the Philippines’ Self-Reliant Defense Posture program, albeit gradually due to domestic political constraints,” he told Rappler. 

Japan is also heavily invested in the Bangsamoro peace process — a topic that Marcos is sure to take up with Takaichi. The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) is finally set to hold parliamentary elections in September 2026. 

A future with and beyond the United States 

An added layer to the growing relationship between Manila and Tokyo is the upheavals to norms and possibly even the international order that the United States has imposed on the rest of the world. 

It goes beyond its war with Israel on Iran and its effects on oil markets. 

US President Donald Trump has made it clear that it wants allies to do more and spend more, especially when it comes to defense. Tokyo has steadily increased its defense spending even before the second Trump presidency. Spending is set to increase even more under Takaichi. 

“Although certain elements of the Trump team assured regional elites of its ironclad commitment, the latter also looked the other way by looking into other American allies and partners just in case,” said Espeña. 

Back in 2024, then-US president Joe Biden brought together Marcos and then-Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio for the first trilateral leaders’ summit between the three countries. 

Marcos said of the partnership then: “It is a partnership, borne not out of convenience nor of expediency, but as a natural progression of a deepening relations and robust cooperation amongst our three nations, linked by a profound respect for democracy, good governance, and the rule of law.” 

Kishida is no longer prime minister, but is Takachi’s special envoy and supreme advisor to the Parliamentary Association of Asia Zero Emission Community. Trump has either tweaked or upended not just Biden-era policies but long-established norms in the United States’ foreign policy. 

Despite this, the US has said, time and time again, that its commitment to the Philippines remains ironclad. Trump’s seeming lack of enthusiasm over Taiwan and a pause on planned arms sales to the democratically governed island, has concerned not a few observers and officials in the region. 

But there’s no real way to put the US out of the equation just yet.

“In the short term, it needs a stable and committed US, so Manila and Tokyo must demonstrate resilience in navigating the current geopolitical room during and beyond the second Trump term. In the long term, however, the gains of spilling over different areas of cooperation can create the institutional patterns to flesh out the necessary capabilities they need,” said Espeña.

Long before Trump’s return to office and even when ties with the United States were on “hyperdrive” under Biden, Manila had made it a point to expand its network of defense and security partners. The Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan is but the first in a long list of new military agreements. The Philippines has forged similar arrangements with New Zealand, Canada, and France. Talks are ongoing for a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement with the United Kingdom.

After the pageantry of a state visit to Japan is over comes the real hard work of operationalizing agreements and, especially for Manila, maximizing the tools it already has and is being offered — be it in security, trade, or energy resilience. – Rappler.com