Renowned macro analyst and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal believes the current Bitcoin bull market could last longer than most expect.
Instead of peaking in 2025, he sees the rally stretching into 2026.
In a recent presentation on X, Pal outlined his case with a mix of macroeconomic signals, liquidity trends, and Bitcoin’s own historical patterns.
Together, he argues, these factors point to an extended cycle that may continue to drive digital assets higher well beyond traditional forecasts.
Here Is Why Bitcoin Bull Market Will Continue Till Q2 2026
Raoul Pal’s outlook rests heavily on the ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading measure of U.S. business activity.
He points out that Bitcoin’s price has been moving in sync with this index, climbing during periods of expansion and cooling when the ISM slows.
Pal argues this alignment is no accident. The ISM reflects real economic demand and supply chain health, while Bitcoin responds to the same forces as both a store of value and a hedge against inflation.
Looking ahead, Pal forecasts the ISM will peak in the second quarter of 2026.
If that plays out, he believes Bitcoin could follow the same path, with prices potentially reaching between $250,000 and $350,000.
According to Pal, when the ISM Index clocks above 60, Bitcoin enters a very different territory.
That level signals strong economic activity, and in his view, it creates the conditions for Bitcoin to surge well beyond $300,000.
He points to history to back up the claim. In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s strongest rallies unfolded when the ISM pushed above that same threshold.
In addition, there are other macroeconomic indicators to complement the ISM Index.
One of the most important is the U.S. Dollar Index, which has already dropped nearly 9% in 2025. This decline strengthens Bitcoin’s well-known inverse relationship with the dollar, making the asset more attractive as the greenback weakens.
At the same time, the U.S. M2 money supply has expanded, adding to inflationary pressures. This environment often pushes investors toward scarce assets, and Bitcoin continues to be a clear beneficiary of that shift.
Moreover, sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East have begun allocating capital to Bitcoin, reinforcing its growing status as a reserve asset on the global stage. Together, these factors create a powerful backdrop for Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
Market Currently Faces a Bear Trap Before Renewed Optimism
According to crypto expert WhalenoName, the market currently sits in what he described as a classic bear trap.
While panic spreads across Crypto Twitter, with many voices declaring that the Bitcoin bull market is already over, his analysis suggests a very different outcome.
His chart showed how this stage typically plays out. After a strong wave of momentum and early optimism, markets often slip into a sharp correction.
That drop shakes out weaker hands and convinces many traders that the rally has ended. Yet historically, this phase has previously acted as the setup for the next explosive move higher.
WhalenoName explained that renewed optimism usually followed right after the bear trap, paving the way for stronger rallies fueled by FOMO and eventually euphoria.
If the same pattern repeated, the dip was not the end of the bull cycle but rather the final reset before the next major leg upward.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/27/bitcoin-bull-market-to-extend-past-q2-2026-says-macroeconomics-expert/
