+12% after $4 billion in Q3 predictive markets

On September 29, Robinhood closed up 12%, driven by surpassing the threshold of $4 billion in predictive market trades, with $2 billion concentrated in the third quarter of 2025. This was announced by CEO Vladimir Tenev in an update on Twitter, also covered on the Robinhood Investor Relations site.

According to the data collected and published by Robinhood on September 29, 2025, the YTD volumes in predictive markets have exceeded $4 billion Robinhood Investor Relations.

Industry analysts observe that the pairing between consumer interface and regulated products has accelerated retail adoption; this reading is consistent with the current guidelines and releases from the CFTC.

In briefings with desks and market operators, we have observed measurable increases in engagement and order book depth during Q3 2025.

In brief — HOOD shares recorded a +12% on 09/29, reaching $136.72 and bringing the annual performance to approximately 260% (according to Robinhood Investor Relations).

In this context, the rally was fueled by the rise of event contracts and the integration with the regulated platform Kalshi.

Why the Stock is Rising

The record trading volume in predictive markets has ignited investor sentiment. Contracts tied to future events have injected new liquidity, increased engagement, and ensured visibility, demonstrating the growth of the offering.

In the third quarter of 2025, $2 billion in trades have strengthened Robinhood’s position, which aims to further diversify revenue sources with regulated products.

The integration with Kalshi, a platform supervised by the CFTC, allows Robinhood to offer event contracts with defined rules and structured clearing processes. That said, the regulatory framework helps to consolidate investor confidence.

Key Numbers (Updated)

• Stock price as of 09/29/2025: $136.72
• Daily increase: +12%
• Performance YTD: ~260%
• Predictive market volumes YTD: $4 billion
• Predictive market volumes Q3 2025: $2 billion
• Total clients: 26.5 million; Gold subscribers: 3.48 million (source)
• Asset on platform (AUC): $279 billion
• Market capitalization: ~$108.2 billion

Predictive Markets on Robinhood: How They Work

Predictive markets allow trading of contracts that pay based on the outcome of a future event.

On Robinhood, thanks to the integration with Kalshi, users access a range of regulated products that also include forecasts on sporting events, launched starting from August 2025. Indeed, the offering has progressively expanded.

The regulated approach offers investors tools with clear rules and defined compliance, transforming a niche segment into a new source of liquidity and investment opportunities. It should be noted that the regulatory framework also facilitates the standardization of processes.

Recent Evolution and Trajectory

In recent quarters, Robinhood has expanded its predictive offering, introducing new categories and increasing market depth. The third quarter of 2025 saw a surge in volumes, significantly contributing to the annual total.

This trajectory supports a more diversified revenue model, which complements the traditional flows from trading and interest with new fees and margins generated by event contracts. However, the balance between growth and risk control remains central.

Context and market signals

Global interest in predictive markets in retail is growing, supported by simple interfaces and immediate payoffs. For a consumer broker like Robinhood, the trend can translate into larger deposits and increased user retention on the platform.

In an American market that does not yet have direct competitors with similar distribution, the cross-sell and retention strategy takes on a crucial role. However, the volatility and risks of excessive concentration require careful monitoring.

Partnership with Kalshi and new regulated perimeter

The collaboration with Kalshi, a platform regulated by the CFTC, allows Robinhood to offer contracts based on real events, from sports events to macroeconomic themes.

This synergy reduces the risk of uncontrolled “gamification” practices, while ensuring constant monitoring of the limits and disclosure of the products offered.

Impact on Business: Where the Effect is Seen

• Engagement: longer sessions and increased usage frequency.
• Revenue: mix of fees, spreads, and interest on balances.
• Acquisition: attractiveness for users interested in topics and events beyond traditional stock trading.
• Brand: strengthening the positioning as an “all-in-one” platform in financial retail.

What to Watch in the Coming Quarters

• The trend of event contract volumes and the corresponding take rate by category;
• The activation and retention rate of users participating in predictive markets;
• Possible new guidelines or regulatory limits proposed by the CFTC;
• The impact on net deposits and the amount of assets on the platform during the fourth quarter.

Risks and Sustainability

The main risk remains regulatory, as the event contract area is particularly sensitive to potential regulatory updates. It is essential to ensure the protection of retail clients and carefully manage conflicts and exposure limits.

From an economic standpoint, the sustainability of the strategy will depend on the maintenance of volumes and the ability to diversify the topics covered, in a context where a slowdown in high-visibility events could impact traction.