Tanzania Census Highlights Sharp Decline in Elephant Numbers

Census shock for a flagship species

According to Tanzania’s new National Wildlife Census 2024/2025, elephant numbers have fallen from more than 134,000 in 2005 to 66,714 today. This places Tanzania third in Africa for elephant populations, behind Botswana at about 130,000 and Zimbabwe at around 100,000. The findings were released in Arusha by the Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute (Tawiri), which led the nationwide survey.

Tawiri’s director general, Eblate Mjingo, said the data shows mixed fortunes. Several species are recovering, but elephants remain under sustained pressure from historic poaching and human-driven change. The census, conducted a decade after the previous 2014/2015 survey, is the first to cover all ecological systems nationwide, giving policymakers and investors a more complete picture of wildlife assets.

Tourism remains a bright spot. Minister for Natural Resources and Tourism Ashatu Kijaji, speaking on behalf of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, said tourism revenues have risen from about US$3.9 billion to around US$4.4 billion. That growth underscores how wildlife, and Tanzania elephants in particular, still anchor the country’s tourism proposition.

Poaching legacy meets habitat pressure

Tanzania’s wildlife authorities link much of the decline to intense poaching in the early and mid-2000s, driven by illegal ivory demand. Musa Kuji, conservation commissioner at Tanzania National Parks Authority (Tanapa), highlighted Selous and Ruaha as ecosystems hit hardest during that period. Those losses still echo through current age structures and breeding dynamics.

However, the pressure is no longer only about ivory. Expansion of human settlements, farming and infrastructure around protected areas has fragmented habitats and disrupted elephant movement. Kuji warned that habitat fragmentation is now one of the greatest threats to elephant conservation, as it restricts migration corridors and limits access to water and pasture in the dry season.

Encroachment into wildlife corridors and protected areas continues, according to Tanzania Wildlife Management Authority (Tawa) conservation commissioner Mlage Kabange. He argued that ecosystems must be allowed to function more naturally if declining species are to recover, even as human populations grow. That implies tougher land-use choices around arterial roads, energy projects and commercial agriculture that cut across traditional elephant ranges.

Parliament is starting to frame this as a strategic issue. Timotheo Mnzava, chair of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Land, Natural Resources and Tourism, called for a national dialogue on restoring elephant numbers. He said the drop from over 134,000 elephants in 2005 to 66,714 today shows the need for stronger measures to regain Tanzania’s historic status as an elephant stronghold.

Balancing tourism growth and land use

Despite the elephant decline, the census confirms Tanzania as a continental leader in other megafauna. Tawiri reports about 328,000 buffalo, the highest number in Africa, and an estimated 17,200 lions, also the largest population on the continent. The country hosts around 302 black rhinos, ranking fifth in Africa. For investors, that breadth supports diversified nature-based tourism products beyond a single flagship species.

Rising tourism receipts suggest that the sector has, so far, grown faster than the loss of elephants. However, long-term returns depend on credible signals that key populations are stabilising. A coordinated national strategy, as urged by Tawa, will need to address three fronts: residual poaching risk, human-wildlife conflict, and habitat degradation. That will shape where new lodges, roads, farms and energy projects can expand without eroding core conservation assets.

For capital providers, the next phase will likely bring more opportunities in wildlife corridor restoration, community conservancies and nature-positive infrastructure design. As Tanzania moves into detailed follow-up to the census, investors will be watching how budget allocations, land-use plans and enforcement priorities shift around Tanzania elephants and the wider wildlife economy.

The post Tanzania Census Highlights Sharp Decline in Elephant Numbers appeared first on FurtherAfrica.