As The Shutdown Persists, Air Travel May Suffer

As the US government shutdown enters its fourth day, the impact on air travel will begin to grow.

Most federal employees such as air traffic controllers and TSA workers directly involved in safety related activities are deemed “essential employees” and must stay on the job without pay. That means 13,000 controllers and over 60,000 screeners are working without compensation. They will receive back pay when the shutdown is over, but economic and morale issues can inhibit efficiency as the shutdown persists.

Generally, if a shutdown goes on for more than two weeks, problems begin to appear.

During the 34 day shutdown of the government in 2018, approximately 10% of TSA employees called in sick driving up screening times at airport check in points across the country. The situation was exacerbated by the fact that the shutdown spanned the Christmas holiday season, beginning on December 22nd and extending to January 25th.

Similar developments would further strain an already overworked air traffic control workforce. The FAA is currently short more than 2,800 controllers system wide, and passengers have been experiencing delays most frequently at major hub airports where flight volume is high and dependent upon short ground time connections.

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (which now displays a headline stating “Portions of the Department of Transportation are currently in shutdown/furlough status due to a lapse in appropriations”), Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) had the worst on time record of major airports at 71.1%. This was followed by Washington’s Reagan National Airport (DCA) at 72% and Denver International Airport (DEN) at 75.3%. The information was for the period January through May of this year.

The best airports were Salt Lake City (SLC) at 84% and Los Angeles International (LAX) at 83.9%. Stated another way, travelers east of the Mississippi have more than a one in four chance of experiencing a delay.

Not all delays are related to ATC employee shortages, as weather, IT systems and mechanical issues factor in as well. However, the FAA has been attempting to hire an additional 2,000 controllers and those activities supporting that effort as well as training and administration are curtailed during the shutdown. The DOT has stated that facility security inspections and support for law enforcement have also been paused.

Certification activities will continue. This is a critical factor, especially in the US, where Boeing is attempting to ramp up production of the 737MAX and achieve a regulatory greenlight for new aircraft such as the 777X and 737-10.

However, prior to the shutdown in late September, the Department of Transportation revealed plans to furlough more than 11,000 employees at the FAA – roughly one quarter of its staff – if funding lapsed.

Five days prior to the shutdown, on September 25, the US Travel Association sent a letter to all Congressional leadership stating: “A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy—costing $1 billion every week—and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while placing unnecessary strain on an already overextended federal travel workforce”.

The Association also shared a survey indicating that 60% of Americans said they would cancel or avoid trips by air in the event of a shutdown.

Congress and the White House know that air travel delays can be a powder keg. According to the New York Times (February 22, 2019) a ground stop at New York’s La Guardia Airport (LGA) and potential union action by flight attendants, controllers and pilots was credited with finally forcing the end to the 2018 shutdown.

It is unlikely that either political party will want to see the shutdown last as long as that. The US Travel Association survey reported that 69% of Americans would be less likely to vote for a member of Congress if they supported a government shutdown – and that sentiment was before the pains of air travel delays were experienced.

However, these are unpredictable times. The 2018 shutdown was the longest in US history – and was under the first Trump administration. The Democratic leadership is desperate to show strength against a party and administration that is testing the limits of precedent.

But it is unlikely that either party could stomach a shutdown of 61 days. The busiest air travel day of the year is the Sunday after Thanksgiving – November 30.