The Week Ahead: Government Shutdown Delays Economic Data as Fed Officials Speak

TLDR

• The federal government shutdown is delaying economic reports from the Labor Department and Census Bureau, including trade deficit data, jobless claims, and wholesale inventories
• Federal Reserve operations continue normally because the Fed is funded through interest on securities rather than congressional appropriations
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and other Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week at various events
• Major corporate earnings from PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, and Constellation Brands are still expected as planned
• Amazon Prime Big Deal Days runs October 7-8 while Bitcoin trades near $125,000 and Ethereum surpasses $4,400

The federal government shutdown is creating uncertainty for investors this week as several key economic data releases face delays. Reports from agencies like the Labor Department and Census Bureau are on hold during the shutdown.

The shutdown affects data that investors typically use to gauge economic health. The U.S. trade deficit report for August will not come out as scheduled on Tuesday. Weekly initial jobless claims data for the week ending October 4 is also delayed.

Wholesale inventories for August face the same fate. The monthly federal budget report for September may or may not be released on Friday. These delays leave investors with less information than usual about the economy’s direction.

The Federal Reserve will continue its normal schedule despite the shutdown. The central bank gets its funding from interest charges on securities it holds rather than from congressional appropriations. This means Fed operations proceed as planned.

Fed Officials to Speak at Multiple Events

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a pre-recorded introduction at Thursday’s community bank conference. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are scheduled for a fireside chat at the same event. Several other Fed speakers have events lined up throughout the week.

The Fed will release minutes from its most recent meeting on Wednesday. At that meeting, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time in 2025. Investors will examine the minutes for signs of influence from Stephen Miran, the board’s newest member who supports steeper rate cuts.

Fed Governor Miran is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. Other Fed officials speaking this week include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Fed Governor Michael Barr, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks on Friday.

Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is expected on Friday. The Fed’s consumer credit report should come out on Tuesday. These releases do not depend on shutdown-affected agencies.

Corporate Earnings Continue Despite Shutdown

Constellation Brands reports earnings on Monday. The Corona and Modelo parent company cut its outlook last month due to tariff concerns and declining alcohol consumption. Sales are expected to show a decrease.

PepsiCo reports on Thursday. Some analysts warn the company could face challenges from its Frito-Lay division and weakness in North American sales. Delta Air Lines also reports Thursday after reinstating its outlook with better-than-expected results.

Levi Strauss reports earnings on Thursday. The jeans maker grew revenue in its prior quarter despite tariff pressures. Applied Digital, Tilray Brands, and Helen of Troy also report Thursday.

Amazon holds its Prime Big Deal Days sales event on October 7-8. Walmart runs its own competing sales event at the same time. These events offer insights into consumer spending patterns.

OpenAI hosts its DevDay developer conference on Monday. Analysts expect new features and announcements from the ChatGPT maker. McCormick reports earnings on Tuesday.

Bitcoin recently surpassed $125,000 while Ethereum cleared $4,400. The rallies stem from ETF inflows, rate cut expectations, and rising institutional interest. Bakkt Holdings stock jumped 150% on renewed institutional demand and debt reduction.

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