Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket

The probe mainly centers on blockchain-based platform Polymarket, where one user reportedly made more than $30,000 after wagering on Machado’s victory. This quickly raised suspicions of leaked information. The investigation comes just as Polymarket and rival Kalshi surged in popularity and valuation after securing $2 billion and $300 million in funding respectively. Backed by the Intercontinental Exchange and now valued at $9 billion, Polymarket is expanding into the US after more regulatory clarity and CFTC approval. With over $1.4 billion in combined monthly trading volume, prediction markets are quickly changing from crypto experiments into powerful financial ecosystems.

Nobel Bets Under Investigation

Norwegian officials reportedly launched an investigation into potential espionage related to bets placed on prediction markets ahead of the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina Machado. According to a Bloomberg report, the Norwegian Nobel Institute, which assists the Nobel Committee in the selection process, began looking into whether confidential information about the winner was leaked and used for profit on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the institute, confirmed that authorities are investigating if someone “managed to steal information and made a lot of money from it.” Data from Polymarket showed that a user under the handle “dirtycup” earned over $30,000 after wagering roughly $70,000 on Machado’s victory. Bloomberg also reported that three accounts placing similar bets made a combined profit of around $90,000, which raised suspicions of insider access. 

Nobel Peace Prize Winner odds (Source: Polymarket)

Machado is a Venezuelan opposition leader and human rights advocate, and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democracy in Venezuela. She has also been vocal about Bitcoin’s role in providing Venezuelans with financial freedom, and called it “a lifeline” amid the nation’s severe inflation and economic instability.

María Corina Machado

Polymarket launched in 2020, and has become one of the most popular decentralized prediction markets that allows users to bet on real-world events ranging from political outcomes to entertainment and awards. The platform’s growth recently attracted major institutional backing, including a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. The move reportedly coincides with Polymarket’s plans to expand operations in the United States after receiving more regulatory clarity from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The CFTC issued a no-action letter to two Polymarket entities in September, effectively giving them permission to operate without the usual reporting obligations that apply to traditional financial markets. This was a major turning point for the company, and CEO Shayne Coplan called it “the green light to go live in the USA.” 

The scrutiny from Norwegian authorities, however, noe casts a shadow over this momentum.

Prediction Markets Hit Billion-Dollar Boom

Prediction markets recently experienced a major surge in momentum, with both Kalshi and Polymarket securing massive new funding rounds. As mentioned above, Polymarket raised $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), bringing its valuation to $9 billion. Kalshi followed closely with a $300 million raise that valued the company at $5 billion. 

The latest investments also created a new billionaire in Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan. Bloomberg reported that he became the youngest self-made billionaire after the deal.

The funding announcements were made amid an explosive rise in trading volumes and competition between the two leading prediction platforms. In September, Kalshi briefly overtook Polymarket with a 60% market share, which was a sharp reversal from earlier this year when Polymarket dominated trading activity. Combined, the two platforms handled a record-breaking $1.44 billion in trading volume during the month, which proved that mainstream interest in event-based speculation as an alternative to traditional financial markets is on the rise.

Polymarket and Kalshi market share (Source: The Block)

Despite their shared focus on prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket differ a lot when it comes to their technical design and market transparency. Kalshi operates off-chain, meaning its data can only be accessed via traditional APIs. This has raised some questions about independent verification of its reported figures. Polymarket, on the other hand, is fully on-chain, which allows every market, position, and transaction to be transparently viewed on the blockchain. This appeals to crypto-native users who value open verification.

Kalshi’s growth has been fueled in part by its recent partnership with Robinhood, which now integrates Kalshi’s prediction markets directly into its trading platform. This move gives Kalshi exposure to Robinhood’s massive retail user base and is a pivotal step in bringing prediction markets into the mainstream. 

Overall, it is clear that prediction markets are evolving from niche crypto experiments into big financial platforms that attract both institutional investment and retail participation.