DALLAS, TEXAS – OCTOBER 24: Head coach Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs looks on while playing the Dallas Mavericks during the first quarter of the game at American Airlines Center on October 24, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
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One of the hardest categories to predict each year is the Coach of the Year award. Unlike the Most Valuable Player trophy, you can’t just pinpoint a handful of the best players in the league and choose between them.
Yes, you do need to be a good coach to earn this honor. But there are a ton of great coaches in this league that merit praise and consideration. To win this award, you need to be a good coach, and you need to have the narrative in your favor.
But how can you predict the plot of a story that hasn’t been written yet? Well, you can’t. What you can do, though, is look at past data to try to create the best possible guess.
The Element Of Surprise
Upon examining past Coach of the Year winners, we observe a distinct trend. The winner of the award is often the lead man of a crew that vastly exceeds their preseason expectations. The Cleveland Cavaliers (coached by reigning COY Kenny Atkinson) won 16 more games in 2024-25 than they did in 2023-24. The Oklahoma City Thunder (Mark Daigneault) won 17 more games in 2023-24 than they did in 2022-23. The Sacramento Kings (Mike Brown) won 18 more games in 2022-23 than they did in 2021-22. Etc, etc.
I know what you’re thinking, “That’s cool and all, but how do you accurately guess which teams will be the most surprising if we haven’t seen any of them play basketball yet?”
To that, I respond that, while we haven’t seen them play in the regular season, we have seen them play basketball.
It may just be exhibition, but the preseason does have some predictive value. And one thing it helps us determine is what teams may be in the mood to take a massive step forward in the upcoming season. In 2021-22, the Chicago Bulls finished second in net rating in the preseason and went on to win 15 more games than they did in 2020-21 (per NBA.com). The Kings were first in preseason net rating in 2022-23 and had an 18-game improvement. The Orlando Magic were fifth in net rating and had a 13-win bump. Last year, the Detroit Pistons were seventh in net rating before their record-breaking turnaround.
Anecdotally, this feels like more than a mere coincidence. All those teams were eager to prove to the league that they were not the same team that they were in the season before. They weren’t taking these games for granted. They were using them as a runway to build up momentum heading into the regular season.
Only one of those teams ended up having a coach who won COY (the Kings and Brown), but two of them (Jamahl Mosley and J.B. Bickerstaff) finished as runner-ups for the nomination. So, this signal isn’t perfect, but it certainly helps narrow down the pool of potential candidates.
Mitch Johnson Could Win Coach Of The Year
Anyway, the team from this preseason that seems primed to follow this pattern is the San Antonio Spurs. After winning just 34 games and finishing 21st in net rating (-2.8), the Spurs were first in net rating, posting a +16.2 per 100 possessions, en route to a perfect 5-0 record. With Victor Wembanyama heading into Year Three, De’Aaron Fox getting set for his first full season with the team, and a cavalcade of tantalizing young players looking to make their mark, San Antonio could shock the world and go from a mid 30-win team to a high-40s/low-50s one.
If that happens, head coach Mitch Johnson would get a ton of credit from the media and fans across the league for being the orchestrator of such a drastic turnaround. Plus, he has the whole “heir to Gregg Popovich’s throne” angle going for him.
Even with this data point, I still find it unlikely that Johnson wins the most prestigious award a basketball coach can win in his first full season as an NBA head coach (my personal prediction is Erik Spoelstra). But at +2500 odds to win it (per FanDuel), Johnson is worth throwing a dart at if you’re into that market.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/matissa/2025/10/21/1-statistical-trend-that-may-predict-who-wins-coach-of-the-year/
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