PANews reported on November 5th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that Bitcoin's overnight drop below the key support level of $100,000 triggered a decline in global risk assets. This round of decline was mainly driven by a stronger US dollar and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, which generally dampened market risk appetite. Macroeconomic pressures quickly transmitted to the crypto market, with the US spot Bitcoin ETF experiencing net outflows of approximately $1.3 billion for four consecutive days, turning it from a significant driver at the beginning of the year into a short-term resistance level. The market saw a coexistence of weak spot demand and forced deleveraging, with over $1 billion in long positions being liquidated during the price bottoming process, followed by bargain hunting. The options market structure also exacerbated volatility, with traders maintaining net short gamma positions near the $100,000 strike price, their hedging behavior amplifying price fluctuations. The $100,000 mark has become a key psychological barrier. If ETF inflows stabilize, market sentiment is expected to recover quickly. On the macro level, the October non-farm payroll data was delayed due to the US government shutdown, and the market is relying on private sector indicators to judge the economic trend. Pre-shutdown data showed economic resilience: Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.8%, job growth slowed but productivity improved, and the Q3 GDPNow forecast remained at a high of 4.0%. High-frequency indicators show that the economy is still expanding moderately. The policy outlook is unclear. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in October but released cautious signals, weakening expectations for another rate cut in December. Currently, the market expects 60-65% for further rate cuts. If the quiet period extends, the possibility of pausing rate cuts will increase, further supporting the dollar and tightening credit. For Bitcoin to resume its upward trend, it needs to wait for a reversal in ETF outflows and a recovery in risk sentiment.PANews reported on November 5th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that Bitcoin's overnight drop below the key support level of $100,000 triggered a decline in global risk assets. This round of decline was mainly driven by a stronger US dollar and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, which generally dampened market risk appetite. Macroeconomic pressures quickly transmitted to the crypto market, with the US spot Bitcoin ETF experiencing net outflows of approximately $1.3 billion for four consecutive days, turning it from a significant driver at the beginning of the year into a short-term resistance level. The market saw a coexistence of weak spot demand and forced deleveraging, with over $1 billion in long positions being liquidated during the price bottoming process, followed by bargain hunting. The options market structure also exacerbated volatility, with traders maintaining net short gamma positions near the $100,000 strike price, their hedging behavior amplifying price fluctuations. The $100,000 mark has become a key psychological barrier. If ETF inflows stabilize, market sentiment is expected to recover quickly. On the macro level, the October non-farm payroll data was delayed due to the US government shutdown, and the market is relying on private sector indicators to judge the economic trend. Pre-shutdown data showed economic resilience: Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.8%, job growth slowed but productivity improved, and the Q3 GDPNow forecast remained at a high of 4.0%. High-frequency indicators show that the economy is still expanding moderately. The policy outlook is unclear. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in October but released cautious signals, weakening expectations for another rate cut in December. Currently, the market expects 60-65% for further rate cuts. If the quiet period extends, the possibility of pausing rate cuts will increase, further supporting the dollar and tightening credit. For Bitcoin to resume its upward trend, it needs to wait for a reversal in ETF outflows and a recovery in risk sentiment.