Ripple (XRP): Structure Intact, but a Break Below This Line Risks a Sharp Pullback

Ripple’s (XRP) recent uptick has pushed its weekly gains to almost 10%, with the token trading at $2.45. Despite this, data suggests that the asset is in “a moment of tension rather than confirmation.”

Its fate now hinges on the $2.41 backtest.

Crucial Fibonacci Level

In a recent market update, CasiTrades warned traders against chasing breakouts and highlighted the need to wait for a backtest of support before entering positions. According to the crypto analyst, an important level to watch is $2.41 on Coinbase, which represents critical Fibonacci support. A reaction in this zone could determine XRP’s next major move. While a short-term bounce toward $2.50 is possible, the analyst noted it remains uncertain whether such a move would sustain or lead to further downside.

If the $2.41 level fails to hold, the macro 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $2 will come into play as the next logical target. This zone fits within the broader correction pattern the analyst has been tracking. Measuring the subwaves, the structure still points toward a potential test of that $2 support before any major recovery.

The outlook is also influenced by Bitcoin’s price action, as it has yet to break its key resistance levels. CasiTrades observed that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a pullback toward $97,000 or even $94,000, with invalidation only occurring if it closes above $107,000 on the 4-hour chart, a level it briefly tested but was quickly rejected from.

Overall, the analyst described the market as being in a “moment of tension rather than confirmation,” with clear invalidation points and a defined structure. The reaction around $2.41 will likely dictate whether XRP resumes its upward continuation or falls to retest its macro support near $2.

Structural Factors, Not Short-Term Sentiment

In a statement to CryptoPotato, Alexis Sirkia, Chairman of Ripple-backed Yellow Network, said XRP’s recent price rise is mainly due to growing expectations for the launch of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Several issuers have updated their filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), while the DTCC has listed up to nine possible XRP tickers. Investors are positioning early, expecting strong retail and institutional inflows once the ETFs go live, possibly around November 13.

Sirkia also pointed to Ripple’s $500 million investment and $40 billion valuation as signs of growing confidence in the XRP ecosystem. He said that major financial players like Citadel and Fortress investing in Ripple show a strong belief in the XRP Ledger’s utility. According to Sirkia, XRP’s next big move will likely depend on these long-term structural developments rather than short-term market sentiment.

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