Crypto: prices down again today

Even today, the prices of many cryptos are declining. 

However, there is a possibility that the recent crash could end today, potentially ushering in a new phase without significant declines for some time. 

The Total3

To thoroughly examine the altcoin market, it is advisable to analyze the trend of the so-called Total3, which is the total market capitalization of all altcoins excluding Ethereum, stablecoins, and of course, Bitcoin. 

After the peak reached on October 7, Total3 had already started to decline more than a month ago. 

To be honest, the initial drop merely wiped out all of September’s gains, but the issue is that this decline was followed by others. 

Specifically, there was one at the beginning of November, and then another, more delicate one, starting from last Friday. 

Due to this recent decline over the span of four days, almost 3% of this market capitalization has been lost, although today there appears to be a slight rebound underway. 

Taking the last seven days as a reference, XRP is at -11%, BNB at -6%, and Solana at -15%, with Bitcoin at -12%.

Instead, Total3 is at -9% over the last seven days, meaning that overall altcoins have declined slightly less compared to Bitcoin. 

Ethereum

The performance of Ethereum, on the other hand, is perfectly in line with that of Bitcoin. 

In fact, in recent days, the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin has consistently fluctuated between 0.032 and 0.034 BTC, without any jolts. 

It should be noted that at the beginning of November it was at 0.035 BTC, so the only real decline of ETH against Bitcoin occurred at the start of the month. 

At this moment, however, Ethereum is at -38% from the all-time highs recorded in August, while Bitcoin is at -28% from those recorded at the beginning of October. 

Overall, the situation seems quite similar. 

Other Cryptos

However, there are some obvious exceptions. 

Taking the last seven days as a reference, for example, Aster is recording a remarkable +25%, but it must be noted that in recent months it had dropped significantly. 

Zcash is also performing well, with a +20% increase following other gains recorded over the past few weeks. 

Specifically, ZEC has skyrocketed from $55 to $570 from the end of September to today, with a performance that might seem stellar. 

However, it should be noted that it is still far from the peak of $800 reached in January 2018, and that it had lost a significant amount both in 2018/2019 and in 2022/2023. 

However, there are also those who lose more than the average, with Pump at -29% over the last seven days, and a substantial group of cryptos at -20% or -21% (Hedera, Cronos, Aave, Sui, Ondo, and Pepe).

It should be noted, however, that by crypto market standards, these cannot be considered true crashes. 

The Outlook

As often happens in these situations, it is Bitcoin that can reverse the trend.

The fact is that there is the possibility that the current downward phase could halt today. 

In fact, the decline that began in the first half of October may have been caused by a slight liquidity shortage generated by the US government shutdown, which started on October 1st. 

At the time, it took six days before the actual onset of the shutdown impacted crypto prices. 

Well, today marks exactly six days since the actual end of the shutdown, so if the exit from the shutdown had effects equal but opposite to those of the entry, today might have seen the lowest point of this period. 

Additionally, there is the possibility that the Dollar Index may enter a phase of significant decline in the coming days or weeks, and given that the medium-term price trend of Bitcoin is inversely correlated with that of the DXY, there is a chance that by the end of the year, the price of BTC could rise again. 

Although this is merely a hypothesis and not a prediction, should such a scenario occur, it is also conceivable that a potential rise in Bitcoin could pull altcoins along with it, reversing the recent downward trend in the crypto markets. 

It’s not certain that this will happen immediately, although for something similar to occur, at the very least, the downward trend would need to halt between today and tomorrow. 

It remains to be seen, in the event of a recovery, whether a genuine new bullrun will commence, or if it will merely be a temporary rebound.