Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Wednesday’s Earnings Report Could Reshape the AI Trade

TLDR

• Nvidia’s Q3 earnings Wednesday could trigger a $300-320 billion market value swing, the largest in company history.
• Wall Street expects $54.8 billion revenue, up 56% year-over-year, with EPS projected at $1.25.
• Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore raised Q3 estimates to $55 billion and Q4 to $63.1 billion, citing strong Blackwell chip demand.
• Peter Thiel’s fund and SoftBank recently exited their positions worth $100 million and $5.8 billion respectively.
• Shares are down 10.5% in November as investors balance AI bubble concerns against robust demand indicators.

Nvidia releases third quarter earnings Wednesday after the market closes. The report arrives as Wall Street watches the AI sector with increasing scrutiny.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Options data from ORATS suggests a potential market value swing of $300 billion to $320 billion. This would represent the largest single-day move in the chipmaker’s history.

Analysts forecast $54.8 billion in revenue, marking 56% growth from the prior year. Earnings per share are expected to reach $1.25, up approximately 50% year-over-year.

The stock has declined 10.5% so far in November. Shares fell nearly 3% on Tuesday as investors weighed valuation concerns.

Recent Investor Exits Add Pressure

Several high-profile investors have reduced their exposure recently. Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sold its entire position, valued at around $100 million.

SoftBank Group liquidated its full $5.8 billion stake. The company is reallocating capital to fund its own AI projects.

Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management outlined a challenging dynamic. Strong guidance could fuel worries about excessive AI infrastructure spending. Weaker guidance might suggest that growth is decelerating faster than expected.

The chipmaker’s market cap briefly exceeded $5 trillion last month. Since reaching all-time highs, shares have retreated roughly 12%.

Morgan Stanley Calls for Breakout Performance

Joseph Moore at Morgan Stanley upgraded his revenue projections ahead of the report. He now anticipates $55 billion for Q3, up from his earlier $54.4 billion estimate.

Moore also increased his Q4 forecast to $63.1 billion from $61.2 billion. He described this sequential growth as potentially the highest in semiconductor industry history.

The analyst highlighted Blackwell as the preferred AI chip among customers. He noted that demand for the upcoming Vera Rubin chip appears “very strong” based on industry feedback.

Morgan Stanley’s research indicates “material acceleration” in customer spending plans. Cloud capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at $142 billion across the sector.

Moore maintained his Overweight rating with a $220 price target. This implies about 21% upside from current trading levels.

Analyst Sentiment Remains Positive

The broader analyst community shows confidence in the stock. Of 39 analysts tracked, 37 assign Buy ratings while just one recommends Hold and one Sell.

The average price target stands at $243.09. This suggests potential gains of 34% over the next twelve months.

AMD CEO Lisa Su provided context on market size during her company’s Financial Analyst Day. She projects the data center market will reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Moore expects cloud providers to continue investing in capacity as long as pricing remains healthy. He identified neo-clouds, AI labs, and sovereign AI programs as additional growth drivers.

The analyst stated that Nvidia’s product leadership position appears secure. All four major hyperscalers are planning spending increases according to consensus estimates.

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