Why XRP’s pain mirrors Bitcoin’s panic

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating its most severe liquidity stress test since late 2022, with more than $1 trillion of value lost in the past month.

While the headline volatility centers on Bitcoin, the structural damage is permeating deeply into large-cap assets such as XRP and Ethereum.

These parallel breakdowns are not isolated incidents. They represent a synchronized liquidity shock that is forcing a repricing of risk across the digital asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin liquidity drain and ETF reversal

The market downturn began as a gradual pricing correction but quickly accelerated into a liquidity event driven by specific market cohorts.

According to data from CheckOnChain, traders locked in $1 billion in losses on Nov. 21 alone. This figure ranks among the heaviest loss realization days of the year.

The data shows that selling pressure was driven primarily by holders whose coins were less than 3 months old. These participants are statistically the most reactive to volatility, and they often enter the market near local tops.

As a result, they are usually the first to exit when price action turns unfavorable.

Glassnode data further corroborates this, showing that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio has collapsed to levels last observed during the depths of the 2022 bear market. This metric indicates that the cohort of recent buyers is selling aggressively into weakness.

Indeed, this market behavior mirrors the classic late-stage fear that typically defines significant drawdowns.

However, unlike the 2022 crash, which was precipitated by credit contagion and exchange insolvency, the current capitulation is driven by an exhaustion of marginal demand and a mechanical unwinding of leverage.

In fact, CryptoQuant data shows that the current market lacks any significant whale activity.

Moreover, this on-chain capitulation coincided with a sharp reversal in institutional flows.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had briefly broken a five-day streak of redemptions with modest inflows earlier in the week, faced renewed selling pressure.

According to Coinperps data, these products recorded $903 million in outflows on Nov. 20. This single-day figure is the largest of the month and ranks among the most significant since the products launched in January 2024.

Apart from that, the scale of these redemptions has erased the capital inflows from the previous relief rally.

As a result, November is now on pace to become the worst month on record for ETF redemptions. The running total of $3.79 billion in outflows has already surpassed the record set in February.

This cumulative effect has resulted in a significant liquidity shock.

Bitcoin ETFs are currently down $3.98 billion from their all-time high in assets under management. This marks the second-largest drawdown in the brief history of these investment vehicles.

So, as these funds are forced to sell underlying assets to meet redemption requests, they add sell-side pressure to a spot market that is already struggling to absorb supply from panicked short-term holders.

XRP capitulation and profitability collapse

While Bitcoin is the source of the volatility, XRP has emerged as a barometer for the secondary effects of the liquidity crunch.

XRP has historically decoupled from Bitcoin during certain volatility windows, but in this instance, its losses are tracking the market leader closely.

As Bitcoin prices fall towards $80,000, XRP has declined nearly 9% over the past 24 hours and under $2 for the first time since April.

This accelerated a downtrend that had been building on a fundamental level as liquidity exited the altcoin market.

According to Glassnode, the XRP Realized Loss at 30D-EMA (30-day exponential moving average) has surged to $75 million per day. This volume of realized loss was last seen in April 2025.

The metric confirms that capitulation is no longer limited to Bitcoin tourist investors but has spread to holders of major altcoins. Investors are choosing to lock in losses rather than hold through the volatility. This suggests a loss of conviction in near-term price recovery.

Due to this, the capitulation has severely impacted the profitability profile of the XRP network. On-chain data indicates that only 58.5% of the circulating XRP supply is in profit. This is the weakest reading since November 2024, a period when the token traded near $0.53.

Consequently, roughly 41.5% of all circulating XRP is sitting at an unrealized loss. This amounts to approximately 26.5 billion tokens held by investors who are underwater on their positions.

This high percentage of supply in loss creates overhead resistance for any potential price recovery. As prices attempt to bounce, underwater holders often look to exit their positions at break-even levels. This creates a steady stream of selling pressure that caps upside momentum.

Notably, the current decline is occurring despite community enthusiasm regarding the newly launched XRP ETFs.

So, this data suggests that macro liquidity constraints and the pressure from the Bitcoin downturn are completely overshadowing any potential bullish narratives specific to the XRP ecosystem.

Structural weakness

The speed and severity of the losses in XRP can be attributed to structural differences between it and Bitcoin.

XRP lacks the deep institutional spot liquidity and the significant bid from ETF inflows that can occasionally cushion Bitcoin during periods of high volatility. The order books for XRP are generally thinner. This makes large sell flows more disruptive to price stability.

Furthermore, the asset has a more distributed retail holder base compared to the increasingly institutionalized Bitcoin market. Retail investors are typically more reactive to price swings and more prone to panic selling during broad market corrections.

Technical indicators reflect this structural weakness. The token recently formed a “death cross,” in which the price fell below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

This technical formation is widely viewed by traders as a signal of momentum exhaustion and often precedes periods of sustained selling pressure. It serves as a confirmation to algorithmic traders and technical analysts to reposition for lower levels.

However, the primary driver remains the broader market dynamic.

When Bitcoin experiences a liquidity event driven by ETF outflows and short-term holder capitulation, altcoins function as shock absorbers for the system. They tend to amplify the volatility rather than dampen it.

The liquidity in Bitcoin does not rotate into altcoins during these phases; instead, it exits the crypto economy entirely, settling into fiat or stablecoins. This leaves assets like XRP vulnerable to secondary waves of panic selling.

The market outlook

A pernicious feedback loop characterizes the current market structure.

A decline in Bitcoin price triggers increased ETF outflows. These outflows necessitate spot selling by fund issuers, which forces prices lower. Lower prices induce panic among short-term holders, who sell into an illiquid market.

As market-wide liquidity declines, altcoins like XRP realize larger losses due to thinner order books. This worsening sentiment circles back to trigger further ETF redemptions.

This circular dynamic explains why losses in XRP are accelerating even in the absence of negative news specific to the asset. The drivers are systemic rather than isolated.

Market participants predominantly focus on Bitcoin as the signal, but the realized loss spikes in XRP serve as a symptom of deeper market fragility. This fragility is rooted in structural liquidity constraints and the composition of the current investor base.

So, Bitcoin’s stabilization will depend on its ability to absorb selling pressure from ETFs and rebuild confidence among short-term holders.

Until the feedback loop is broken by a moderation in outflows or a return of spot demand, assets with weaker liquidity profiles will remain exposed to downside risk.

XRP serves as a critical gauge in this environment. If its profitability metrics stabilize, it may signal that the market has flushed out the majority of weak hands. However, if losses continue to mount, it suggests the liquidity crunch has yet to find a floor.