Why Ethereum might lead next rally: Matt Hougan points to a catalyst investors are ignoring

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes Ethereum could lead the next crypto rally, pointing to an upgrade catalyst that investors are overlooking.

The Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 3 may increase Ethereum’s revenue capture by 5 to 10 times through a minimum Layer 2 data fee.

Hougan argues the market is missing a broader trend: major tokens are quickly shifting toward better value capture. Uniswap (UNI) is moving toward a fee switch that would burn roughly 16% of trading fees, while the XRP (XRP) community explores staking options.

New regulations are pushing tokens away from vague governance models toward direct economic benefits for holders.

Fusaka upgrade targets Layer 2 efficiency

The Fusaka hard fork will activate on December 3, 2025, at 21:49:11 UTC on Ethereum (ETH) mainnet block 13,164,544. Core developers finalized the timeline after successful tests on Holesky, Sepolia, and Hoodi testnets.

Fusaka introduces Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), which allows validators to confirm transaction data availability by sampling small pieces rather than downloading complete data blobs.

The technology makes Layer 2 rollup operations faster, cheaper, and more efficient while reducing bandwidth requirements.

The upgrade increases the block gas limit from 45 million to as high as 150 million. Each block will accommodate more transactions, smart contracts, and data-intensive applications.

Hougan wrote on X that Fusaka introduces “a minimum fee for recording data from Layer 2s” that could multiply revenue capture five to ten times.

“I suspect the market will start to orient around the positive impacts of Fusaka soon, particularly if it’s delivered Dec. 3 as expected,” he stated.

Tokens pivot from governance to economic value

Uniswap’s proposed fee switch would burn approximately 16% of trading fees if the vote passes. “I suspect this will push UNI toward being a top 10 token by market cap over time,” Hougan wrote.

The change would shift UNI from a pure governance token to one with direct economic benefits.

The XRP community is evaluating staking mechanisms that would change token holder economics. Hougan sees this as part of a pattern where tokens are implementing value capture features.

The Bitwise CIO predicts this shift will become apparent in 2026. “The level of value capture in digital assets is up only from here. I think people look at token value capture as static. It’s not,” he wrote.

Hougan described the Fusaka upgrade as “an under-appreciated catalyst and one reason ETH could lead the crypto rebound.”