As Bitcoin slips toward the mid-80,000 dollar zone, new data shows U.S. spot demand weakening while higher-time-frame momentum indicators turn lower. At the same time, fresh on-chain and chart signals point to conditions that historically formed near major cycle peaks.
Coinbase Premium Stays Negative as U.S. Demand Weakens
Bitcoin’s latest slide comes as the Coinbase Premium Index drops deeper into negative territory, signaling soft U.S. spot demand during a broader market drawdown. The metric, tracked by CryptoQuant, measures whether Bitcoin trades at a higher or lower price on Coinbase compared with global exchanges. It often reflects the sentiment of U.S. institutional and high-net-worth buyers.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant / X
The chart shows Bitcoin moving toward the mid-80,000 dollar zone while the hourly premium stays below zero. This negative reading means BTC is trading cheaper on Coinbase than on offshore venues, which usually indicates selling pressure or weaker bid activity from U.S. participants. At the same time, the green and red bands in the data highlight how consistently the index has remained below neutral since early November.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that it still feels early to declare a full recovery in institutional sentiment. He pointed out that the hourly premium remains negative even as other regions show signs of accumulation. His comment underscores the divergence between U.S. flows and global markets, especially during episodes of elevated volatility.
The declining premium also follows a series of rapid price drops, suggesting that U.S. traders may be offloading positions or reducing exposure as Bitcoin approaches support zones. Meanwhile, global exchanges show steadier pricing, which implies that offshore buying is absorbing part of the sell-side pressure. This dynamic often appears during heavy corrections, when liquidity concentrates in specific regions.
The latest premium levels align with broader on-chain behavior. Coinbase-linked wallets have not shown large inflows that typically mark aggressive buying, while offshore venues continue to post more balanced flows. As long as the premium stays below zero, analysts say it reflects cautious conditions among U.S. investors during the current downturn.
Traders Dynamic Index Signals Possible Bitcoin Cycle Peak
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s two-month Traders Dynamic Index now flashes a classic late-cycle warning as the green line crosses below the red line. On Man of Bitcoin’s chart, the slow moving average (green) has slipped under the fast moving average (red) while BTC trades near the upper boundary of a long-term rising channel that connects the 2017 and 2021 tops.
Bitcoin 2 Month TDI Channel. Source: Man of Bitcoin
This crossover on the TDI has often appeared close to major bull-cycle peaks in past cycles. In both 2017 and 2021, similar two-month crossovers developed after extended rallies, when price already sat near the upper band of the channel and momentum began to cool. The current structure echoes that pattern, with BTC still elevated after a strong multi-year advance.
At the same time, the broader TDI bands on the chart show the green and red lines rolling over from relatively high levels instead of recovering from oversold territory. That configuration points to fading upside momentum rather than early-cycle accumulation. As long as the crossover holds on the higher time frame, it suggests traders may treat the recent move as a maturing phase of the bull cycle, even if short-term rebounds remain possible within the channel.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12570/coinbase-premium-turns-deep-red-and-a-major-bitcoin-cycle-signal-flashes-trouble
