In brief
- Trading app Robinhood has acquired a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group.
- Research firm Bernstein believes the acquisition is a move by Robinhood to launch its own prediction market platform, alongside the Kalshi-powered “events contracts” it already offers.
- As a result, shares of HOOD have risen 8% on Wednesday as the firm inches closer to its September all-time high.
Robinhood may be making a push towards launching its own dedicated prediction market platform, acquiring a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX, which was previously owned by the now-defunct FTX.
In response, the shares of HOOD have climbed more than 8% to $125 since Wednesday’s market open, according to Yahoo Finance.
“Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” said JB Mackenzie, VP and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, in a statement. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers.”
The popular trading app partnered with prediction market Kalshi in the summer to start offering what it brands as “event contracts,” which its CEO Vlad Tenev said were “really on fire” in a recent earnings call.
However, research firm Bernstein believes the acquisition of LedgerX, which does business under the name MIAX, is a move by Robinhood to launch its own event contracts alongside the Kalshi-powered offerings.
“With HOOD already accounting for more than 50% of Kalshi market volumes, we believe, HOOD wants to leverage its distribution edge to claim a higher share of the market revenue pool,” Bernstein analysts said in a note shared with Decrypt.
“By adding its own prediction markets liquidity, HOOD can innovate further on product mix leading to more revenue upside from both growing volumes and take-rate,” the analysts added. “We believe HOOD will continue distributing Kalshi products, but will supplement more event contracts directly.”
Robinhood, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group, acquired its 90% stake from Miami International Holdings for an undisclosed fee. Miami International Holdings will retain the remaining 10% of equity. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.
MIAX has regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list and clear fully collateralized futures and options on futures and swaps. The firm hopes the acquisition will see it push into the world of prediction markets.
“The transaction announced today will provide MIAX with access to the growing prediction markets on an expedited basis,” Thomas P. Gallagher, chairman and CEO of MIAX, said in a late Wednesday release. “We have evaluated alternatives to facilitate our entry to the prediction markets, and we believe that today’s strategic alignment is the right lever for offering institutional and retail futures traders exposure in the growing prediction markets while providing MIAX with potential long-term value.”
HOOD stock has risen more than 8% to $125 following the announcement, as it inches closer to its all-time high of $153 set in September as Robinhood looked to expand its prediction market offerings outside of the U.S.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/350145/robinhood-stock-rises-deal-prediction-markets-push
