US Dollar (USD) crosses have traded in tight ranges as the Thanksgiving holiday dried up flows. Volatility shouldn’t pick up materially today, even though the dollar remains vulnerable to a convergence lower towards short-term swap rates, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Dollar faces dwnside risk to 50-DMA
“Our short-term fair value model continues to display some short-term dollar overvaluation against most of the G10, and risks remain skewed towards a return to the 99.0 50-day moving average in DXY.”
“Geopolitical news remains closely monitored, even though the impact on FX has been contained so far. President Putin said yesterday that the draft discussed in Geneva could form the basis of a future deal with Ukraine, and US peace envoy Steve Witkoff is confirmed to visit Moscow next week. We could see some build-up in expectations of a breakthrough in negotiations ahead of that Witkoff trip.”
“While there is considerable caution in markets about the prospects of a peace deal, any material progress from here should weigh on the dollar and support high-beta European currencies.”
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-crosses-trade-in-tight-ranges-ing-202511281046
