Trading time: The market has entered a phase of shrinking volume and volatility, Hayes bets BTC will reach $110,000

1. Market observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

The BSC ecosystem and the Solana ecosystem continue to compete for on-chain popularity. CZ began to promote ecological projects and used BNB to buy mubarak in APX Finance, which caused APX and mubarak to rise sharply. It is worth noting that Wintermute may become the market maker of the BSC ecological meme coin mubarak, and has withdrawn a total of 6.04 million tokens from Gate in the past four days.

Solana ecosystem can't sit still. Moonshot has quietly launched three new MEME tokens, TITCOIN, FAT, and ROUTINE, after a long period of inactivity. Trump called out TRUMP and complained that his portrait was too ugly. Then Downald tokens appeared on the Solana chain, with a market value of about $14.5 million. Bitcoin ended last week with a positive line, closing at about $86,000, but market opinions are still divided. In terms of short-term outlook, Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee pointed out last weekend that $85,000 will be a key psychological barrier. If the closing price this week cannot break through this position, the price of Bitcoin may face further downward pressure next week. In terms of medium-term outlook, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes proposed the view of "first rise and then fall", predicting that Bitcoin will first test $110,000 and then pull back to the level of $76,500. However, trader Eugene said that the market has entered the fifth stage, characterized by long losses, price consolidation, and shrinking trading volume and volatility. At this stage, some of the stronger altcoins have reached bottom, but it is still uncertain whether the bottom has arrived for most assets.

Regulatory developments have also attracted much attention. Senator Cynthia Lummis's 2025 Bitcoin Act advocates that the United States obtain 1 million Bitcoins within five years, accounting for about 5% of the total supply. Thursday's SEC chairman qualification hearing is worth paying attention to, which may involve cryptocurrency-related content. Matthew Sigel, director of digital asset research at VanEck, mentioned that Bloomberg Legal analysts believe that the federal government has a 30% chance of purchasing Bitcoin this year.

At the macroeconomic level, the market is closely watching several key indicators. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stressed that the consumer confidence index, fourth-quarter GDP, initial jobless claims, and the upcoming PCE inflation data will all affect the Fed's interest rate cut decision. The Fed hinted at its March 18-19 meeting that it would ignore short-term inflationary pressures, laying the foundation for possible future easing policies. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said that global tariff concerns will continue to put pressure on the market until tariff-related issues are resolved between April 2 and July.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 24)

• Bitcoin: $86,928.38 (-7.13% year-to-date), daily spot volume $17.58 billion

• Ethereum: $2,050.00 (-38.54% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $9.255 billion

• Fear of corruption index: 45 (neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC 1.47 sat/vB, ETH 0.43 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 60.7%, ETH 8.7%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: AUCTION, XRP, W, ZETA, BTC

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0496

• Sector gains and losses: AI sector rose 5.57%, DePIN sector rose 4.73%

• 24-hour liquidation A total of 81,306 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$169 million, including BTC liquidation of US$58.17 million and ETH liquidation of US$25.23 million

3. ETF flows (as of March 21 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: $83.09 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$18.63 million

4. Today’s Outlook

• Confidential computing network Arcium will launch a community round on CoinList with a total token supply of 1 billion (SPL standard)

• Berachain officially launches PoL (Proof of Liquidity), governance enters the first phase, the incentive mechanism will take effect, and the new reward pool will be discharged

• Sky Governance cuts Sky savings rate to 4.5%

• Binance and Huobi HTX launch Nillion (NIL) spot trading pairs

• Babylon Genesis Pre-Launch Meetup: Taipei (feat. Zeus Network) will be held on March 24, 2025

• Bithumb plans to end trading support for Bitcoin Gold (BTG) and VALOR tokens

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market value today: BugsCoin (BGSC) up 36.16%, Mubarak up 26.52%, Ankr (ANKR) up 25.43%, SPX6900 up 23.01%, StormX (STMX) up 22.63%

5. Hot News

• Weekly preview | Walrus plans to launch the mainnet; Berachain Foundation will launch PoL on March 24, and governance will enter the first phase

• Macro Outlook This Week: Market Expects Fed to Be More Dovish, Stagflation Questions Still to Be Solved

• ALT, VENOM, YGG and other tokens will usher in large amounts of unlocking, of which ALT unlocking value is about 9.8 million US dollars

• Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker information again, and may disclose holdings data next week

• GoPlus: All frozen funds have been transferred to the company account and a "buyback plan" has been launched

• Analyst: BUSD was once the third largest stablecoin by market value, and its current market value on Ethereum is only about $50 million

• Wintermute may have become a market maker for the Meme coin mubarak

• Suspected Binance Wallet employee made over $110,000 in profit by trading UUU on the BSC chain

• Movement Co-creation: movedrop will be launched in April

• Trader Eugene: Stronger altcoins have reached the bottom, but it is still unclear whether the bottom of most assets has arrived

• This week, the US Bitcoin ETF bought 8,775 BTC, while miners produced only 3,150 BTC

• Japanese listed real estate company Open House Group announces acceptance of XRP, SOL and DOGE payments

• Analysis: Bitcoin momentum shows short-term potential, but still leans towards long-term bearishness on low volumes