Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews. 1. Market Observation In the US, due to signs of weakness in the labor market, institutions such as Goldman Sachs predict that a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is almost a certainty, with the market pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut . Meanwhile, discussions about the next Federal Reserve Chairman have also attracted attention, with White House National Economic Council Director Hassett considered a leading candidate , whose stance could push for more aggressive rate-cutting policies. In stark contrast, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has issued its clearest signal to date regarding a rate hike , hinting at a possible rate adjustment in December and planning to further clarify the future path after the rate reaches 0.75%. On the regulatory front, the People's Bank of China convened a multi-department meeting on November 29th, reiterating its crackdown on virtual currencies and defining stablecoins for the first time as a form of virtual currency with risks of money laundering and illegal fundraising. Meanwhile, investigative reports on the rampant cryptocurrency speculation show that this activity is gradually infiltrating mainstream social media and e-commerce platforms, including Xiaohongshu and Taobao , forming a trap for ordinary investors. Regulatory authorities may further intensify their oversight of virtual currency-related activities to prevent potential financial risks and protect investor rights. In this environment, risk aversion and demand for scarce assets have surged, with spot silver prices historically breaking through $57/ounce, driven by tight supply and expectations of interest rate cuts, while gold prices have also remained strong. However, the traditional "Christmas rally" in US stocks may be absent this year . Wall Street strategists point out that the disruptive impact of AI and continued market volatility have broken past seasonal patterns, adding uncertainty to the year-end performance of risk assets. Bitcoin closed at $90,360 in November, marking its worst November performance since 2018, with a monthly drop of 17.55%. This downward trend continued on December 1st, with the market opening in the red and falling by more than 5% at one point, breaking below $86,000. This volatility triggered massive leveraged liquidations, further exacerbating market uncertainty. Renowned trader Peter Brandt pointed out that the price of Bitcoin could fall below $70,000, with support at the mid-$40,000 level. Analyst James Wynn believes the market is in a phase of "anxiety and denial," with an initial target price of $67,000, and a potential further decline to the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Economic analyst Timothy Peterson's analysis shows that the current Bitcoin price movement has a 98% correlation with the monthly charts of the 2022 bear market, suggesting that a true recovery may not occur until the first quarter of next year. Analyst Aylo also pointed out from a historical cycle perspective that Bitcoin always falls back to the 200-week moving average (currently around $63,000 to $65,000) after reaching its peak, and believes that factors such as miners shifting to AI may become downward catalysts. On the other hand, some analysts hold a relatively optimistic or neutral view. Analyst Sykodelic believes this decline is a healthy liquidity cleanup. CrypNuevo predicts the price may fluctuate between $80,000 and $99,000, with key resistance at $94,500. A break above this level could see the price test the major resistance at $99,000. Against this backdrop, CoinAnk's liquidation heatmap shows short-term support between $83,200 and $84,000, while short-term upside resistance is between $94,000 and $95,200. Meanwhile, the CEO of Strategy reiterated that Bitcoin will only be sold if the Bitcoin Net Asset Value (mNAV) falls below 1 and funding is unavailable. Ethereum 's price action is similar to Bitcoin's. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades points out that ETH is currently fluctuating within the key range of $2,600 to $3,000. A break above $3,000 could see it rise to $3,300-$3,400; conversely, a drop below $2,600 could see it fall to a low of $2,000. Analyst Man of Bitcoin also believes that ETH has not yet shown clear signs of bottoming out, with a key level at $2,903. However, the market is also facing selling pressure. According to data from ValidatorQueue, approximately 1.5 million ETH will be unstaking by the end of December, which may be related to institutional rebalancing and market volatility. Recent project-related risk events have been frequent. Yearn Finance's yETH stablecoin pool was attacked, with attackers exploiting an infinite minting vulnerability to drain the pool, resulting in a loss of approximately $9 million. Although the Yearn team stated that other core treasuries were unaffected, the incident has still raised market concerns about DeFi security. Meanwhile , the price of the SAHARA token plummeted by over 55%. According to KOLs, this was due to its active market makers being liquidated by the exchange for abnormal operations on other projects, leading to forced liquidation of their positions. Furthermore, amidst the current panic, Binance announced that it would add tokens such as DENT, CHESS, and SXP to its monitoring list, causing these tokens to generally fall by more than 20%. 2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, December 1st) (Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap) Bitcoin: $8,576 (down 7.82% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $61.03 billion. Ethereum: $2,827 (-15.18% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $20.53 billion. Fear of Greed Index: 24 (Fear) Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 11.6% Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, LSK, WAL 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.49% / 51.51% Sector Performance: DePIN sector fell 9.23%, L2 sector fell 8.98%. 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 193,186 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $591 million. This included $199 million in BTC liquidations, $135 million in ETH liquidations, and $31.77 million in SOL liquidations. 3. ETF Flows (as of November 28) Bitcoin ETF: +$71.371 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows. Ethereum ETF: +$76.5491 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net inflows. Solana ETF: +$5.37 million XRP ETF: +$22.68 million 4. Today's Outlook Aster has announced the Season 3 airdrop schedule: the inspector will open on December 1st, and tokens can be claimed on December 15th. Rayls may hold a TGE on December 1st. Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 55.54 million tokens on December 1st at 8:00 AM, representing 0.56% of the total supply, worth approximately $85 million. The Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS) will unlock approximately 5.7 million tokens on December 1st at 8:00 AM, representing 19% of the total supply and worth approximately $12.7 million. Walrus (WAL) will unlock approximately 32.7 million tokens on December 1st at 8:00 AM, representing 0.65% of the total supply and worth approximately $5.5 million. Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 95.31 million tokens on December 2nd at 8:00 AM, representing 0.64% of the total supply, worth approximately $27.2 million. The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Zcash down 21.7%, Ethena down 17.2%, Dash down 15.5%, KuCoin down 12.1%, and Virtuals Protocol down 12%. 5. Hot News Data: SUI, ENA, SANTOS and other tokens will see large-scale unlocking, with SUI unlocking value estimated at approximately $85 million. This Week's Preview | Fusaka Network Upgrade to be Activated on Ethereum Mainnet; Sui (SUI) to Unlock Tokens Worth Over $80 Million Crypto trading volume fell to approximately $1.6 trillion in November, the lowest level since June. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has evaporated by $140 billion in the past four hours. Data: Token sales raised $14.47 billion in November, the highest monthly figure in the past two years. Data: Crypto market inflows decreased to approximately $10 billion over the past month, down from about $60 billion. An ancient ETH whale sold 7,000 ETH in the past month, potentially making a profit of $19.745 million. Arthur Hayes stated that "MON is a high-risk VC coin and could plummet by 99%," while the founder of Monad suggested experiencing the mainnet. A new wallet, suspected to belong to Bitmine, received 16,693 ETH from FalconX, worth $50.11 million. Following the unstaking of its tokens, the HyperLiquid team distributed approximately 1.745 million HYPE tokens to 29 new wallets, of which nearly 610,000 may be sold. Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews. 1. Market Observation In the US, due to signs of weakness in the labor market, institutions such as Goldman Sachs predict that a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is almost a certainty, with the market pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut . Meanwhile, discussions about the next Federal Reserve Chairman have also attracted attention, with White House National Economic Council Director Hassett considered a leading candidate , whose stance could push for more aggressive rate-cutting policies. In stark contrast, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has issued its clearest signal to date regarding a rate hike , hinting at a possible rate adjustment in December and planning to further clarify the future path after the rate reaches 0.75%. On the regulatory front, the People's Bank of China convened a multi-department meeting on November 29th, reiterating its crackdown on virtual currencies and defining stablecoins for the first time as a form of virtual currency with risks of money laundering and illegal fundraising. Meanwhile, investigative reports on the rampant cryptocurrency speculation show that this activity is gradually infiltrating mainstream social media and e-commerce platforms, including Xiaohongshu and Taobao , forming a trap for ordinary investors. Regulatory authorities may further intensify their oversight of virtual currency-related activities to prevent potential financial risks and protect investor rights. In this environment, risk aversion and demand for scarce assets have surged, with spot silver prices historically breaking through $57/ounce, driven by tight supply and expectations of interest rate cuts, while gold prices have also remained strong. However, the traditional "Christmas rally" in US stocks may be absent this year . Wall Street strategists point out that the disruptive impact of AI and continued market volatility have broken past seasonal patterns, adding uncertainty to the year-end performance of risk assets. Bitcoin closed at $90,360 in November, marking its worst November performance since 2018, with a monthly drop of 17.55%. This downward trend continued on December 1st, with the market opening in the red and falling by more than 5% at one point, breaking below $86,000. This volatility triggered massive leveraged liquidations, further exacerbating market uncertainty. Renowned trader Peter Brandt pointed out that the price of Bitcoin could fall below $70,000, with support at the mid-$40,000 level. Analyst James Wynn believes the market is in a phase of "anxiety and denial," with an initial target price of $67,000, and a potential further decline to the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Economic analyst Timothy Peterson's analysis shows that the current Bitcoin price movement has a 98% correlation with the monthly charts of the 2022 bear market, suggesting that a true recovery may not occur until the first quarter of next year. Analyst Aylo also pointed out from a historical cycle perspective that Bitcoin always falls back to the 200-week moving average (currently around $63,000 to $65,000) after reaching its peak, and believes that factors such as miners shifting to AI may become downward catalysts. On the other hand, some analysts hold a relatively optimistic or neutral view. Analyst Sykodelic believes this decline is a healthy liquidity cleanup. CrypNuevo predicts the price may fluctuate between $80,000 and $99,000, with key resistance at $94,500. A break above this level could see the price test the major resistance at $99,000. Against this backdrop, CoinAnk's liquidation heatmap shows short-term support between $83,200 and $84,000, while short-term upside resistance is between $94,000 and $95,200. Meanwhile, the CEO of Strategy reiterated that Bitcoin will only be sold if the Bitcoin Net Asset Value (mNAV) falls below 1 and funding is unavailable. Ethereum 's price action is similar to Bitcoin's. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades points out that ETH is currently fluctuating within the key range of $2,600 to $3,000. A break above $3,000 could see it rise to $3,300-$3,400; conversely, a drop below $2,600 could see it fall to a low of $2,000. Analyst Man of Bitcoin also believes that ETH has not yet shown clear signs of bottoming out, with a key level at $2,903. However, the market is also facing selling pressure. According to data from ValidatorQueue, approximately 1.5 million ETH will be unstaking by the end of December, which may be related to institutional rebalancing and market volatility. Recent project-related risk events have been frequent. Yearn Finance's yETH stablecoin pool was attacked, with attackers exploiting an infinite minting vulnerability to drain the pool, resulting in a loss of approximately $9 million. Although the Yearn team stated that other core treasuries were unaffected, the incident has still raised market concerns about DeFi security. Meanwhile , the price of the SAHARA token plummeted by over 55%. According to KOLs, this was due to its active market makers being liquidated by the exchange for abnormal operations on other projects, leading to forced liquidation of their positions. Furthermore, amidst the current panic, Binance announced that it would add tokens such as DENT, CHESS, and SXP to its monitoring list, causing these tokens to generally fall by more than 20%. 2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, December 1st) (Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap) Bitcoin: $8,576 (down 7.82% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $61.03 billion. Ethereum: $2,827 (-15.18% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $20.53 billion. Fear of Greed Index: 24 (Fear) Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 11.6% Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, LSK, WAL 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.49% / 51.51% Sector Performance: DePIN sector fell 9.23%, L2 sector fell 8.98%. 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 193,186 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $591 million. This included $199 million in BTC liquidations, $135 million in ETH liquidations, and $31.77 million in SOL liquidations. 3. ETF Flows (as of November 28) Bitcoin ETF: +$71.371 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows. Ethereum ETF: +$76.5491 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net inflows. Solana ETF: +$5.37 million XRP ETF: +$22.68 million 4. Today's Outlook Aster has announced the Season 3 airdrop schedule: the inspector will open on December 1st, and tokens can be claimed on December 15th. Rayls may hold a TGE on December 1st. Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 55.54 million tokens on December 1st at 8:00 AM, representing 0.56% of the total supply, worth approximately $85 million. The Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS) will unlock approximately 5.7 million tokens on December 1st at 8:00 AM, representing 19% of the total supply and worth approximately $12.7 million. Walrus (WAL) will unlock approximately 32.7 million tokens on December 1st at 8:00 AM, representing 0.65% of the total supply and worth approximately $5.5 million. Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 95.31 million tokens on December 2nd at 8:00 AM, representing 0.64% of the total supply, worth approximately $27.2 million. The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Zcash down 21.7%, Ethena down 17.2%, Dash down 15.5%, KuCoin down 12.1%, and Virtuals Protocol down 12%. 5. Hot News Data: SUI, ENA, SANTOS and other tokens will see large-scale unlocking, with SUI unlocking value estimated at approximately $85 million. This Week's Preview | Fusaka Network Upgrade to be Activated on Ethereum Mainnet; Sui (SUI) to Unlock Tokens Worth Over $80 Million Crypto trading volume fell to approximately $1.6 trillion in November, the lowest level since June. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has evaporated by $140 billion in the past four hours. Data: Token sales raised $14.47 billion in November, the highest monthly figure in the past two years. Data: Crypto market inflows decreased to approximately $10 billion over the past month, down from about $60 billion. An ancient ETH whale sold 7,000 ETH in the past month, potentially making a profit of $19.745 million. Arthur Hayes stated that "MON is a high-risk VC coin and could plummet by 99%," while the founder of Monad suggested experiencing the mainnet. A new wallet, suspected to belong to Bitmine, received 16,693 ETH from FalconX, worth $50.11 million. Following the unstaking of its tokens, the HyperLiquid team distributed approximately 1.745 million HYPE tokens to 29 new wallets, of which nearly 610,000 may be sold.