By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

December has started weak, with bitcoin BTC$85,516.82 trading at $86,800, down 5% over 24 hours after touching a low of $85,732 during the early Asian hours. The CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 Indices are off more than 6% apiece, signaling deeper risk-off moves in the broader crypto market.

The blame likely falls on fresh worries over Bank of Japan rate hikes and soft Chinese economic data, both of which are crimping risk appetite across regional equities and digital assets.

"Markets are questioning whether global liquidity is truly easing," Singapore-based QCP Capital noted, pointing to Strategy CEO Phong Lee's remark that his firm could sell its BTC holdings if shares trade below net-asset value and funding dries up as another bearish catalyst.

The real headline, though, is yet another hack: this time, the DeFi platform Yearn suffered a $9 million loss. (Details on the strategy employed by the backer can wait) What's telling is that hacks keep hitting DeFi and centralized platforms alike, with over $9 billion lost to scams, hacks and exploits in the past 12 months, per De.Fi data – a figure that would rank as a top-20 token by market cap.

Hack recoveries? Just $154 million over the same stretch.

So, not only is security a major concern, but post-hack recovery technology and enforcement efforts are also falling short. Talk about denting investor confidence!

The takeaway is that ETFs and other alternative vehicles have broadened crypto's investor base, lifting crypto valuations, but security lags far behind. Perhaps it's time for investors to press VCs and pundits on "wen institutional-grade security?" and not just "wen $200K/$500 for BTC?"

As for the next 24 hours, market trajectory largely depends on what the Fed Chair Jerome Powell says during his speech at the Hoover Institution’s George P. Shultz Memorial Lecture Series later today. Bulls want dovish signals for swift rate cuts to pressure the dollar and support BTC. Neutral or hawkish? More downside can be seen. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

• Crypto
  • Dec. 1: 21Shares Core XRP Trust (TOXR) is expected to begin trading on Cboe BZX Exchange.
  • Dec. 1: Ontology (ONG) activates mainnet v3.0.0 upgrade, reducing ONG supply from 1 billion to 800 million, locking liquidity, extending emissions and optimizing network performance.
  • Dec. 1: Qtum (QTUM) is expected to undergo its second halving event, reducing mining rewards by 50% from 0.5 QTUM to 0.25 QTUM per block.
  • Dec. 1: Starknet (STRK) activates "Privacy Perps" on mainnet with layer 2 masking for private perps trading.
• Macro
  • Dec. 1: The Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening (QT), ceasing balance sheet reduction from this date as it aims to stabilize financial markets amid tightening liquidity conditions.
  • Dec. 1, 8 a.m.: Brazil Nov. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.2).
  • Dec. 1, 9:30 a.m.: Canada Nov. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 49.6).
  • Dec. 1, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. Nov. (Final) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Est. 51.9.
  • Dec. 1, 10 a.m.: Mexico Nov. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 49.5).
  • Dec. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Nov. Manufacturing PMI Est. 48.6.
  • Dec. 1, 8 p.m.: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell speech. Watch live.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Dec. 1: Cango (CANG), post-market.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

• Governance votes and calls
  • None planned.
• Unlocks
  • ENA$0.2382 to unlock $50.4 million worth of tokens, representing 2.8% of supply on Dec. 2.
  • EigenLayer (EIGEN) to unlock $18 million worth of tokens on Dec. 1, representing 10.8% of supply.
• Token Launches
  • Luxxcoin (LUX) to list on AscendEX with LUX/USDT pair.
  • Rayls (RLS) to list on Gate with RLS/USDT pair.
  • APTM$0.4337 to list on Poloniex with APTM/USDT pair.
  • WEMIX$0.5256 to list on Bitkub with WEMIX/THB pair.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

• Day 1 of 7: Solana Economic Zone (Dubai, UAE)

Market Movements

• BTC is down 4.81% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $86,563.37 (24hrs: -5.05%)
• ETH is down 6.57% at $2,838.87 (24hrs: -6.09%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 6.52 at 2,746.16 (24hrs: -6.15%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 4 bps at 2.8%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0034% (-3.7033% annualized) on Binance
• DXY is down 0.21% at 99.25
• Gold futures are up 0.85% at $4,291.10
• Silver futures are up 1.83% at $58.21
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.89% at 49,303.28
• Hang Seng closed up 0.67% at 26,033.26
• FTSE is unchanged at 9,720.40
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.41% at 5,644.84
• DJIA closed on Friday up 0.61% at 47,716.42
• S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,849.09
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.65% at 23,365.69
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.6% at 31,382.78
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.95% at 3,172.24
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2.3 bps at 4.042%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.57% at 6,820.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.66% at 25,313.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.45% at 47,526.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.36 (-0.09%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03282 (-0.86%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,090 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $36.64
• Total fees: 2.13 BTC / $194,616
• CME Futures Open Interest: 139,220 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 20.3 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 5.79%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows Binance-listed ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio's daily swings in candlestick format.
• The ratio broke out of a prolonged descending channel last week.
• However, the follow-through has been muted so far, with the ratio struggling to gain sustained upward traction.
• This lack of decisive movement suggests that while the initial breakout is promising, the market remains cautious, and a clearer trend confirmation — a move above last week's high of 0.03398 — is still needed before a stronger rally can be expected.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $272.82 (+2.96%), -3.61% at $262.97 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $79.93 (+10.04%), -2.63% at $77.83
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.59 (+1.33%), -3.69% at $25.61
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $43.62 (+1.82%), -3.23% at $42.21
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.81 (+6.3%), -4.83% at $11.24
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.13 (+7.82%), -3.91% at $15.50
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.89 (+4.39%), -1.54% at $16.63
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $15.1 (+12.27%), -5.7% at $14.24
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $48.43 (+5.01%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $16.52 (-7.14%), -0.12% at $16.50

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $177.18 (+0.88%), -3.84% at $170.37
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $21.72 (+5.03%), -3.59% at $20.94
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.62 (+3.61%), -6.21% at $9.96
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.8 (+0.72%), -3.93% at $2.69
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.89 (-1.56%), -2.65% at $1.84

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $21.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.62 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $60.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.89 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin Drop Ends Up Liquidating $500M Bullish Bets in Early Asia Trading (CoinDesk): Leveraged longs were wiped out across major exchanges as thin liquidity and fragile sentiment triggered a $646 million liquidation cascade, extending crypto’s late-month selloff.
• Yen Rises and Bonds Fall After BoJ Governor Hints at Rate Increase (Financial Times): The comments lifted the odds of a Dec. 19 rate hike to 75%, pushing two-year government bond yields to a 15-year high, as the government pursues a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.4 billion) stimulus.
• Bitcoin's Monthly MACD Flashes Red: Echoes of Past Bear Markets (CoinDesk): The same monthly trend indicator that preceded major bitcoin declines in 2014, 2018 and 2022 has flipped negative again, just as ETF outflows and macro risks mount.
• Japan Moves to Apply Flat 20% Tax on Crypto Profits (Nikkei): Japan plans to replace its crypto capital gains tax — currently as high as 55% — with a flat 20% rate in 2026, aligning treatment with stocks and other financial assets.