Why MSCI’s Pending Decision Isn’t the Real Risk for MicroStrategy — or Bitcoin

There’s no reason to be concerned about Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) potentially being removed from indexes or about the company selling its Bitcoin holdings, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

First, a little background: recently, the finance company Morgan Stanley Capital International, more commonly known as MSCI, announced it’s running a consultation on the inclusion of digital asset treasury companies (DATs) in its investable market indexes. The review is happening because many DATs seem to be nothing more than holding companies for cryptocurrencies rather than true operating companies, and MSCI doesn’t include holding companies in its indexes. MSCI is expected to announce the outcome of the consultation on January 15, 2026.

There are fears that if DATs like Strategy are removed from these indexes, it would trigger large-scale forced selling of DAT stocks by index funds. 

JPMorgan estimates that if Strategy is removed from MSCI indexes as much as US$2.8 billion (AU$4.2b) in Strategy stock would be sold by these funds, potentially causing Strategy’s share price to drop and forcing it to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings. Hougan, however, believes these fears are largely unfounded. 

In an article published December 3, the Bitwise CIO estimated Strategy’s chances of being removed from MSCI’s indexes at about 75% — but he believes even if it is dropped, it won’t have much impact on the company’s share price.

I’m not convinced that removal would be a big deal for the stock. $2.8 billion is a lot of selling, but my experience from watching index additions and deletions over the years is that the effect is typically smaller than you think and priced in well ahead of time. 

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

“For instance, when MSTR was added to the Nasdaq-100 Index last December, funds tracking the index had to buy $2.1 billion of the stock. Its price barely moved,” he said.

Hougan also believes that part of the explanation for Strategy’s recent share price drop is that the market has already priced in its exclusion from indexes, so when the news is finally announced, the impact is likely to be small.

In any case, Hougan said whether Strategy is excluded from the indexes or not, it won’t impact the company’s long-term prospects.

“At this point, I don’t think you’ll see substantial swings either way. Long-term, the value of MSTR is based on how well it executes its strategy, not on whether index funds are forced to own it.”

Related: 4-Year Cycle Dead? Bitcoin Could Hit New Highs in 2026, Grayscale Says

Strategy Unlikely to Sell its Bitcoin Regardless of What Happens, Says Hougan

According to Hougan, even if Strategy (MSTR) is removed from indexes and its price drops to a level substantially below the net asset value (NAV) of Bitcoin, the company is still unlikely to unload its Bitcoin holdings.

“There is nothing about MSTR’s price dropping below NAV that will force it to sell. You can look at the details and do the math yourself,” Hougan said.

Strategy has two main obligations on its debt that could theoretically force it to sell some of its Bitcoin, according to Hougan — its interest payments and its debt conversions — though the Bitwise CIO does not believe either poses any real short- to medium-term risk.

“The interest payments are not a near-term concern. The company has US$1.4 billion in cash, meaning it can make its dividend payments easily for a year and a half,” Hougan explained.

“Similarly, debt conversion is not a near-term issue either. The first debt instrument doesn’t come due until February 2027. Even then, it’s only about $1 billion —chump change. For context, the company has $60 billion in bitcoin.”

Another factor which makes any significant selling of Bitcoin by Strategy unlikely, according to Hougan, is Chairman Michael Saylor’s unwavering conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Michael Saylor himself controls 42% of the voting shares, and you’d be hard pressed to find a human being with more conviction on bitcoin’s long-term value. He didn’t sell the last time MSTR stock traded at a discount, in 2022.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

Related: Bitwise CIO Says Token Value Capture Set to Supercharge Crypto Prices by 2026

Hougan also pointed out that Bitcoin is still 27% down on its all-time high and is currently trading at 24% above Strategy’s average buy-in price, giving the company plenty of wiggle room before it needs to start thinking about panic selling.

While Hougan firmly believes Strategy isn’t a concern, he did point to other worrying signs for crypto, highlighting the slow progress of the crypto market structure bill (the CLARITY Act) through the US Congress, the potential for other “small and poorly run DATs” to fold and the likelihood that DATs will stop being a major source of buy pressure in 2026.

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