CryptoQuant: Strategy Is Bracing for a Bitcoin Bear Market

• Strategy has set aside a $1.44 billion reserve amid concerns about the bitcoin exchange rate, CryptoQuant said.
• The company reserved this amount for dividend payments and debt service.
• The pace of bitcoin purchases by Strategy has slowed significantly.

Strategy has set aside a reserve of $1.44 billion to provide for dividend payments and interest on debt. CryptoQuant analysts believe that the accumulation of the fiat reserve indicates a change in the company’s strategy — it is now preparing for a potentially prolonged market decline or consolidation.

It is known that the funds were raised through a market offering program and already cover at least 12 months of liabilities. The company plans to expand the reserve to 24 months or more.

According to CryptoQuant experts, this model, which combines holding both the first cryptocurrency and U.S. dollars, minimizes risks in the event of a liquidity crisis. But it is also a departure from Strategy’s previous strategy, which focused on buying bitcoins through new capital raises starting in 2020, the statement said.

Analysts said Strategy’s reduced demand for bitcoin could weaken one of the key drivers of bull cycles. However, the emergence of a fiat buffer makes the company less vulnerable to market pressure, and thus less likely to sell bitcoins due to financial difficulties.

The report also notes that Strategy now allows for the possibility of hedging or partially monetizing its bitcoin assets — particularly through derivatives — in the event of further market declines.

Experts emphasized that the company’s bitcoin purchase rate has decreased from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to 9,100 BTC in November 2025. As of December, MicroStrategy has only purchased 135 BTC.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that if Strategy keeps its 650,000 BTC or sells minimally, the market will not repeat the 65% drop like it did in 2022. According to him, the current decline from the all-time high is about 25%, and even in the case of a bear cycle, the drawdown is likely to be more modest and more akin to sideways movement.

He also emphasized that long-term investors should not panic, as bitcoin now has more liquidity channels and long-term prospects remain strong.

Recall, earlier we reported that Strategy is in talks with MSCI regarding the decision to exclude the company from the indices.