The United States’ stablecoins plan continues to draw mixed views from analysts. The sector has grown by over $50 billion and surpassed $300 billion in total market supply following the passage of the GENIUS Act in July.
However, the White House’s $2-$4 trillion target by 2028-2030 and the primary goal of bolstering demand for U.S short-term Treasury bills may be too ambitious, according to some analysts.
According to Teresa Ho, Head of U.S short-duration strategy at JPMorgan, the post-GENIUS Act momentum for stablecoins has been positive. However, she added,
For JPMorgan, the market could only grow to $700 billion over the next few years. Especially since interest-paying stablecoins are currently banned by law.
Stablecoin growth vs T-bill demand
Supporters of the stablecoin believe that it could become a staple in payments. Since they are mostly backed by short-term U.S Treasury bonds, it could also help service the fiscal debt in the long run.
According to S&P Global, the top U.S dollar-based stablecoin issuers (Tether and Circle) held about $155 billion worth of T-bills as of October 2025.
This translated to 2.5% of total U.S. T-bills, and was close to the 6.8% held by foreign officials. However, both were still below the 33% market share controlled by U.S money market funds.
The firm estimated that by the end of the year, the issuers could buy $50-$55 billion additional T-bills, adding that,
It linked the projected growth to regulated issuers, especially Tether, which debuted a compliant on-shore stablecoin called USAT.
In fact, as of July, Tether reported holding $127 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bills, making it the 17th largest U.S debt holder.
Source: Messari
China’s pushback
However, the current T-bill demand from stablecoin issuers is not only tiny compared to money market funds, but also to the overall U.S. fiscal debt, with the same hitting $38 trillion.
This may be the “real concern,” noted Steven Barrow, Head of G10 strategy at London-based Standard Bank. He added,
Additionally, some countries, such as China, are cracking down on dollar-based stablecoins (USDT, USDC) to protect their financial stability.
Standard Chartered has also estimated that $1 trillion in capital outflows from emerging markets to stablecoins could happen by 2028, further highlighting the risks that could attract bans from these jurisdictions.
Final Thoughts
- The GENIUS Act has sparked growth, and stablecoin issuers could become ‘marginal’ T-bill buyers.
- However, critics argue that U.S-dollar-backed stablecoins are driving limited demand for T-bills and may face bans in countries such as China.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/jpmorgan-sees-little-chance-stablecoins-will-lift-u-s-treasury-bill-demand-heres-why/
