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JPMorgan Maintains Bitcoin's Gold-Linked Target at $170K Despite Recent Drop

2025/12/05 21:03
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JPMorgan Maintains Bitcoin's Gold-Linked Target at $170K Despite Recent Drop

The bank’s volatility-adjusted bitcoin-to-gold model still points to a theoretical price around $170K over the next six to twelve months.

By Will Canny, AI Boost|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Updated Dec 5, 2025, 4:19 p.m. Published Dec 5, 2025, 1:03 p.m.
Wall Street bank JPMorgan maintains a bitcoin target linked to gold of $170K despite the recent drop. (Midjourney, modified by CoinDesk)

What to know:

  • El modelo de JPMorgan ajustado por volatilidad de bitcoin frente al oro todavía implica un precio teórico cercano a $170K en los próximos seis a doce meses.
  • La relación entre el valor empresarial de la estrategia y las tenencias de bitcoin (mNAV) se mantiene actualmente por encima de 1.00, lo cual el banco considera alentador.
  • El fondo de reserva de $1.4 mil millones de la compañía es un colchón que puede financiar aproximadamente dos años de pagos de dividendos e intereses, según el informe.

A pesar de las recientes caídas bruscas en el precio de bitcoin, el banco de Wall Street JPMorgan se mantiene firme en su objetivo de modelo ajustado por volatilidad BTC contra oro, que apunta a un precio teórico cercano a $170,000 en los próximos seis a 12 meses.

La plus grande cryptomonnaie du monde se négociait autour de 91 200 $ au moment de la publication.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW
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La estrategia (MSTR) es un motor clave para bitcoin BTC$88,529.83, con los mercados observando su relación valor empresarial-tenencias de bitcoin (mNAV), ahora alrededor de 1.13, como una lectura clave sobre el riesgo de venta forzada si cae por debajo de 1.0, escribieron los analistas dirigidos por Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou en el informe del miércoles.

Es alentador que el mNAV de la empresa aún se mantenga por encima de 1.0, dijo el informe.

Los analistas señalaron el fondo de reserva de $1.4 mil millones de la empresa como un amortiguador contra la necesidad de vender bitcoin, y señalaron la decisión del índice de MSCI del 15 de enero como un catalizador asimétrico: la exclusión está en gran medida descontada después de la fuerte caída de las acciones desde el 10 de octubre, mientras que un resultado positivo podría impulsar un fuerte repunte.

La empresa fundada por Michael Saylor es el mayor tenedor corporativo de bitcoin, con 650,000 BTC en su balance. La firma ha estado bajo fuego en las últimas semanas después de que el precio de la criptomoneda líder cayera desde un máximo histórico de más de $120,000 a tan solo $82,000.

Entre otras razones, el banco vinculó la reciente caída de bitcoin a la presión renovada sobre la minería en China y un retroceso de los mineros de mayor costo en otros lugares, algunos de los cuales, según se informa, han vendido bitcoin ya que los costos de energía se mantienen altos.

JPMorgan ha reducido su estimación del costo de producción de bitcoin a $90,000 desde $94,000 después de las recientes caídas en la tasa de hash y la dificultad de minería.

The hashrate is the total computing power of the network dedicated to mining and validating transactions in a proof of work blockchain, and is often used as a proxy for mining competition and difficulty.

Un período prolongado por debajo del costo de producción puede volverse auto-reforzante a medida que los mineros marginales se retiran, reduciendo la dificultad y empujando la estimación de costos a la baja, como se vio en 2018, dijeron los analistas.

La reducción de apalancamiento posterior al 10 de octubre en futuros perpetuos parece estar mayormente superada, agregó el informe.

Read more: JPMorgan warns that MSCI's decision could force the strategy out of major stock indices

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AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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