Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Trump Administration Approves H200 Chip Exports to China

TLDR

• Nvidia received approval from President Trump to export H200 AI chips to China with a 25% government fee attached to sales.
• The H200 processor is six times more powerful than currently available H20 chips approved for Chinese markets.
• Shares climbed 2% in after-hours trading following Trump’s Truth Social announcement on Monday.
• AMD and Intel will receive similar export permissions under the Commerce Department’s finalized framework.
• Chinese government response remains unclear despite Trump’s claim that President Xi reacted positively to the proposal.

President Donald Trump gave Nvidia the green light Monday to sell H200 AI processors to vetted Chinese customers. The catch? A 25% fee goes straight to the U.S. government.

Trump posted the announcement on Truth Social. He said he’d informed President Xi Jinping directly and received a positive response.

The H200 marks a step up from what’s currently available in China. Research from the Institute for Progress shows it’s nearly six times more powerful than the H20 chip that Chinese buyers can legally purchase today.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Investors liked the news. Nvidia shares popped 2% in extended trading after the announcement. Regular session trading had already seen a 3% gain on earlier speculation.

Commerce Department Takes Control of Details

The Commerce Department will hammer out the specifics of the export arrangement. Trump confirmed AMD and Intel can pursue similar deals for their AI chip lines.

A White House official clarified the mechanics. The 25% fee gets collected as an import tax from Taiwan, where the chips are manufactured. U.S. officials will review the chips for security concerns before they ship to China.

That’s a steeper price than the 15% rate Trump floated in August for H20 exports. The newest Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips stay off the table completely.

Nvidia called the decision a “thoughtful balance” in their official statement. Sales will only go to commercial customers that pass Commerce Department vetting.

Will China Actually Buy?

Here’s where things get interesting. China has been steering its tech companies away from buying even the downgraded H20 chips in recent months. Two sources confirmed Beijing warned firms against purchasing Nvidia’s Chinese-market products.

Nvidia’s current revenue projections assume zero sales from China. The company hasn’t been counting on Chinese business for financial planning.

Chinese foreign ministry comments on Tuesday stayed vague. Officials said China wants cooperation with the U.S. for mutual benefits. Analyst George Chen from The Asia Group thinks regulators might ease up given Trump’s mention of Xi’s reaction.

But not everyone sees sunshine ahead. Democratic senators called it an “economic and national security failure.” Representative John Moolenaar warned China would reverse-engineer the technology and eliminate Nvidia as competition.

Performance Gap Remains Large

The Blackwell chip used by U.S. companies still leaves H200 in the dust. It’s 1.5 times faster for training AI systems and five times faster for inference tasks according to Institute for Progress data.

Trump met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang last week. Export control positions were discussed during the meeting.

Intel passed on commenting. AMD and Commerce Department didn’t respond to media requests.

Bo Zhengyuan from Plenum consultancy expects China to stay focused on building domestic chip capabilities regardless of this temporary opening.

The post Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Trump Administration Approves H200 Chip Exports to China appeared first on Blockonomi.