American Bitcoin (ABTC) Stock: Why One Analyst Sees 106% Upside After Brutal Selloff

TLDR

• American Bitcoin stock crashed 39% on Dec. 2 after a lock-up period expired, with shares down 72% since September debut
• Roth Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $4 price target, citing the company’s unique mining-plus-treasury model
• The company now holds 4,783 Bitcoin after purchasing 416 coins worth $38 million in its latest acquisition
• American Bitcoin operates differently from pure treasury companies by mining Bitcoin while also buying it on the open market
• Roth forecasts holdings will reach 26,000 coins by late 2027 through mining and strategic purchases

American Bitcoin stock took a beating last week. Shares plunged 39% on Dec. 2 when early investors finally got their chance to sell.

American Bitcoin Corp, ABTC

The lock-up period on shares from a June private placement expired. Major stockholders rushed for the exits. The stock has fallen 72% since trading began in September.

Shares closed at $1.94 on Wednesday, down another 5.4%. Not exactly the launch investors hoped for when Eric Trump co-founded the operation.

But Roth Capital sees something others might be missing. The firm slapped a Buy rating on American Bitcoin with a $4 price target. That would represent a 106% gain from current levels.

Analyst Darren Aftahi thinks the company’s structure sets it apart. American Bitcoin isn’t just buying Bitcoin with borrowed money. It’s actually mining the stuff too.

The company reported Wednesday it now holds 4,783 Bitcoin. It just added 416 coins worth about $38 million in the previous week.

That brings its satoshis per share metric to 507. That number jumped more than 17% in a single month. It tells shareholders exactly how much Bitcoin backs each share they own.

The Mining Angle Changes Everything

Most Bitcoin treasury companies follow the Strategy playbook. Issue stock, sell bonds, buy crypto. Rinse and repeat.

American Bitcoin took a different path. The company mines Bitcoin while other operations pivoted to AI and advanced computing. Its partnership with Hut 8 provides data center infrastructure, power access, and operational support.

Here’s why that matters. If mining stays profitable, American Bitcoin generates actual cash flow. The company can then buy Bitcoin on the open market when prices make sense.

Pure treasury plays don’t have that option. They rely entirely on capital markets to fund purchases.

Roth believes this hybrid model lets American Bitcoin compound its holdings faster than competitors. The firm projects the treasury will hit 26,000 coins by the second half of 2027.

American Bitcoin went public in September through a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. The Trump brothers and Hut 8 kept roughly 98% of the combined company.

The merger brought in $220 million through equity offerings. Management earmarked those funds for Bitcoin and mining equipment purchases. They’ve made clear mining will drive reserve growth, not just market buying.

The Trump Connection Cuts Both Ways

Eric Trump serves as chief strategy officer. His brother Donald Trump Jr. is a major investor. That name recognition opens doors to capital, Roth argues.

But Trump-linked public companies haven’t exactly lit the market on fire. Trump Media stock has dropped 67% this year. The parent company of Truth Social went public through a SPAC merger in 2021.

Alt5 Sigma, a crypto treasury with ties to Trump family-founded World Liberty Financial, just got two compliance notices from Nasdaq. The company said it’s working to fix the issues.

Only a handful of analysts track American Bitcoin. Roth is the lone firm covering GrabAGun Digital Holdings, another Trump-connected company. No FactSet-tracked analysts cover Trump Media at all.

Roth disclosed its own Trump world connections. The firm provided investment banking services to American Bitcoin and Hut 8 over the past year. It’s engaged as an underwriter for a SPAC with Donald Trump Jr. on the board.

Bitcoin climbed 1.4% in the 24 hours before Wednesday’s announcement. The company’s treasury accounting includes coins purchased but not yet settled, plus Bitcoin in custody or earmarked for miner purchases. American Bitcoin now ranks among the top 25 public Bitcoin treasury holders globally after just three months of trading.

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