Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks

Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks in Q4 bodes well for January, says K33's Lunde

Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail

Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks in Q4 bodes well for January, says K33's Lunde

After an active morning Tuesday, bitcoin flattened out in afternoon trading around the $87,500 area, up 2% over the past 24 hours.

By Helene Braun, Krisztian Sandor|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Dec 16, 2025, 8:41 p.m.
Bearish Q4 action could lead to Q1 bull move (CoinDesk)

What to know:

  • Bitcoin held in the $87,500 in U.S. afternoon action on Tuesday, up 2% over the past 24 hours.
  • K33 analyst Vetle Lunde suggested BTC's relative weakness to stocks this quarter could mean rebalancing-led buying once January rolls around.

After an active morning, bitcoin BTC$87,786.94 stayed largely flat in the $87,500 area in U.S. afternoon trade, holding gains around the 2% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins, including ether ETH$2,962.03, XRP$1.9345 and solana SOL$128.18 showed similar upside action.

Crypto-related stocks were also seeing bounces after Monday's plunge, including a 3% gain for Strategy (MSTR) and a 1% advance for Coinbase (COIN).

STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sign me up

Read more: Bitcoin bounces from Monday's worst levels, but sub-$80,000 may come next, analyst says

“Clients are positioned with cautious optimism," said Josh Barkhoarder, head of sales at FalconX. "In the short term, most expect crypto to remain range-bound until we see a clear catalyst, so they’re holding core bitcoin exposure and sitting on cash elsewhere."

BTC may benefit from rebalancing, analyst says

With year-end approaching, bitcoin may benefit from its sluggish performance compared to other asset classes through the quarter as asset managers rebalance their portfolios to maintain their mandated allocation, noted Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.

Earlier this year, when BTC underperformed the S&P 500 index through the first quarter, it started the next with gains, according to Lunde. Conversely, when BTC outperformed equities in the second quarter, it booked declines in the beginning of the third.

So far in the fourth quarter, bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 26%, suggesting that a sizable rebalancing is be due.

"Fund managers with predetermined BTC allocation targets may adjust weights into year-end, potentially resulting in excess inflows during the final trading days of the year and into early January," Lunde continued.

Crypto traders hesitant

Despite prices stabilizing, market participants remain hesitant to take on new risk, K33's Lunde added.

Derivatives activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remains near yearly lows, with BTC futures open interest hovering around 124,000 BTC, he wrote. On perpetual swap markets, funding rates hovered around the neutral rate with open interest showing little movement, signaling lack of short-term directional conviction.

Declining spot crypto trading volumes, down 12% through last week, also confirms that many traders remain reluctant to engage as the year is drawing to a close.

Bitcoin News

More For You

Protocol Research: GoPlus Security

Commissioned byGoPlus

What to know:

  • As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
  • GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
  • Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
View Full Report

More For You

Bitcoin derivatives point to broad price range play between $85,000-$100,000

BTC options flow points to expectations for a broad range play rather than a massive surge or crash.

What to know:

  • Bitcoin's derivatives market shows stability, with strong support at $85,000 and resistance between $95,000 and $100,000.
  • Traders are selling put options at $85,000, indicating confidence that bitcoin won't fall below this level soon.
  • Call options are being sold at $100,000.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News

Bitcoin derivatives point to broad price range play between $85,000-$100,000

U.S. Senate's Warren asks for Trump-tied crypto probe as market structure bill drags

BNB tops $870, outperforming crypto majors as volume surges

Marshall Islands launches world’s first blockchain-based UBI on Stellar blockchain

Polkadot advances as Coinbase unlocks integration with USDC stablecoin

Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin jumps to 20th among public BTC treasury companies

Top Stories

U.S. FDIC proposes first U.S. stablecoin rule to emerge from GENIUS Act

Bitcoin derivatives point to broad price range play between $85,000-$100,000

U.S. Senate's Warren asks for Trump-tied crypto probe as market structure bill drags

Bitcoin bounces from Monday's worst levels, but sub-$80,000 may come next, analyst says

Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin jumps to 20th among public BTC treasury companies

U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, with unemployment rate jumping to four-year high of 4.6%

Market Opportunity
WELL3 Logo
WELL3 Price(WELL)
$0.0000103
$0.0000103$0.0000103
0.00%
USD
WELL3 (WELL) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

Woodway Assurance receives $1 million in funding for data privacy assurance solution EviData

Woodway Assurance receives $1 million in funding for data privacy assurance solution EviData

OTTAWA, ON, Dec. 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ – New Canadian technology company Woodway Assurance is proud to announce that it has closed an oversubscribed seed funding
Share
AI Journal2025/12/17 23:16
Wormhole Unleashes W 2.0 Tokenomics for a Connected Blockchain Future

Wormhole Unleashes W 2.0 Tokenomics for a Connected Blockchain Future

TLDR Wormhole reinvents W Tokenomics with Reserve, yield, and unlock upgrades. W Tokenomics: 4% yield, bi-weekly unlocks, and a sustainable Reserve Wormhole shifts to long-term value with treasury, yield, and smoother unlocks. Stakers earn 4% base yield as Wormhole optimizes unlocks for stability. Wormhole’s new Tokenomics align growth, yield, and stability for W holders. Wormhole [...] The post Wormhole Unleashes W 2.0 Tokenomics for a Connected Blockchain Future appeared first on CoinCentral.
Share
Coincentral2025/09/18 02:07
BlackRock boosts AI and US equity exposure in $185 billion models

BlackRock boosts AI and US equity exposure in $185 billion models

The post BlackRock boosts AI and US equity exposure in $185 billion models appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BlackRock is steering $185 billion worth of model portfolios deeper into US stocks and artificial intelligence. The decision came this week as the asset manager adjusted its entire model suite, increasing its equity allocation and dumping exposure to international developed markets. The firm now sits 2% overweight on stocks, after money moved between several of its biggest exchange-traded funds. This wasn’t a slow shuffle. Billions flowed across multiple ETFs on Tuesday as BlackRock executed the realignment. The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) alone brought in $3.4 billion, the largest single-day haul in its history. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) collected $2.3 billion, while the iShares US Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF (DYNF) added nearly $2 billion. The rebalancing triggered swift inflows and outflows that realigned investor exposure on the back of performance data and macroeconomic outlooks. BlackRock raises equities on strong US earnings The model updates come as BlackRock backs the rally in American stocks, fueled by strong earnings and optimism around rate cuts. In an investment letter obtained by Bloomberg, the firm said US companies have delivered 11% earnings growth since the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, earnings across other developed markets barely touched 2%. That gap helped push the decision to drop international holdings in favor of American ones. Michael Gates, lead portfolio manager for BlackRock’s Target Allocation ETF model portfolio suite, said the US market is the only one showing consistency in sales growth, profit delivery, and revisions in analyst forecasts. “The US equity market continues to stand alone in terms of earnings delivery, sales growth and sustainable trends in analyst estimates and revisions,” Michael wrote. He added that non-US developed markets lagged far behind, especially when it came to sales. This week’s changes reflect that position. The move was made ahead of the Federal…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 01:44