Bears Still Dominate Ondo crypto as Selling Pressure Starts to Fade

Despite the heavy downside pressure seen lately, Ondo crypto is entering a technically interesting zone where downside energy looks depleted but conviction from buyers is still missing.

Main scenario from the daily chart: bearish, with growing mean-reversion risk

The daily (D1) trend is clearly bearish. Price at $0.41 sits below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs, and right on the lower Bollinger Band. However, momentum is already stretched on the downside. This is typically when trend followers are happy, but fresh shorts have to be very careful about chasing entries.

Daily EMAs: trend is down, rallies are sells for now

• EMA 20: $0.47
• EMA 50: $0.55
• EMA 200: $0.75

Price is stacked well below all three EMAs, with a clear downside ladder: EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA200. That is classic downtrend structure: every bounce towards $0.47–0.55 is currently more likely to be sold than to start a new uptrend. Moreover, the distance from spot ($0.41) to the EMAs also shows how compressed the market is: we are trading in the discount zone of the entire moving-average cloud, which often precedes either a trend acceleration leg lower or a sharp relief rally.

Daily RSI: oversold, but not bouncing yet

• RSI 14 (D1): 30.85

RSI is sitting just at the edge of oversold territory. That tells you sellers have controlled the tape for a while, but they are not accelerating anymore. The market is stretched but not yet rejecting the lows. This is the type of reading where:

• Further downside is possible, but the risk-reward for new shorts gets progressively worse.
• A bounce towards the 20-day EMA ($0.47) becomes increasingly likely if price does not break down quickly.

Bottom line: momentum is heavy, but the downside fuel is starting to run low. Bulls do not have control, they just have better odds of a short-term reaction if price refuses to break below $0.40.

Daily MACD: trend is weak, but not yet turning

• MACD line: -0.03
• Signal line: -0.03
• Histogram: ~0

MACD on the daily is essentially flat and negative, with line and signal sitting on top of each other. That tells us two things:

• The bearish trend is still in place (both lines below zero).
• The impulse phase of the sell-off is over; the move is more drift than collapse.

In other words, the market is tired but not yet reversing. To get a proper bullish shift, we would need to see MACD curl up, histogram turn clearly positive, and price reclaim the 20-day EMA. Right now, we are not there.

Daily Bollinger Bands: price hugging the lower band

• BB mid: $0.47
• BB upper: $0.54
• BB lower: $0.41

ONDO crypto is sitting directly at the lower Bollinger Band around $0.41. When price walks the lower band in a downtrend, it signals persistent selling pressure. However, being exactly on that band after an extended move also means a lot of the bad news is already priced in, at least tactically.

Practically, this gives us a short-term decision zone:

• Break and hold below the band → continuation leg lower, likely into the mid-$0.30s.
• Fail to break lower and snap back inside the band → classic mean-reversion bounce toward the mid-band ($0.47).

Daily ATR: volatility is low, but compression rarely lasts

• ATR 14 (D1): $0.03

An ATR of $0.03 on a $0.41 asset is modest. The market has calmed down compared to earlier trend legs, which fits with the idea of a late-stage downtrend where energy is being stored. Low daily ATR into extreme fear usually precedes a volatility expansion. That expansion can go either way, but it rarely means more quiet sideways action.

Daily pivot levels: market camped on the pivot

• Pivot point (PP): $0.41
• R1: $0.42
• S1: $0.40

Price is glued to the daily pivot at $0.41, with a very tight intraday map: only a cent between PP and S1.

That tells you liquidity is clustering right here; the market is waiting for a catalyst. A push above $0.42 would be the first sign of buyers trying to take back control for a bounce, while a firm break below $0.40 would likely invite another round of forced selling.

Intraday structure: bearish bias, but selling is flattening out

1-hour chart (H1): bears still ahead, momentum fading

• Price: $0.41
• EMA20: $0.41
• EMA50: $0.42
• EMA200: $0.45
• RSI 14: 37.81
• MACD: flat at 0
• BB mid: $0.41 (upper and lower $0.42 / $0.41)
• ATR14: ~0
• Pivot: PP $0.41, R1 $0.41, S1 $0.41

On the 1h, ONDO is again in a bearish regime, but here the story is more about indecision and lack of energy than active selling:

• Price is basically on the EMA20 and just under EMA50, while EMA200 sits well above at $0.45. Short-term traders are not aggressively selling every uptick anymore, but they are not willing to chase it higher either.
• RSI around 38 shows mild downside bias, not capitulation. Sellers are in control, but they are not panicking.
• MACD at zero and a nearly dead ATR say it all: the market is coiling, not trending, on this timeframe.

In practice, the 1h chart confirms the daily bearish bias but also underscores how exhausted the move is intraday. This is where short-term traders usually start fading extremes rather than pressing momentum, at least until volatility returns.

15-minute chart (M15): execution-only, market frozen at $0.41

• Price: $0.41
• EMA20/50: both $0.41
• EMA200: $0.42
• RSI 14: 30.94
• MACD: flat at 0
• BB mid: $0.41 (band almost collapsed)
• ATR14: ~0
• Pivot: PP $0.41, R1 $0.41, S1 $0.40

The 15-minute is almost frozen: price, short EMAs, and mid-BB are all sitting on the same level. RSI is near oversold again, showing short-term pressure, but with ATR near zero, there is no follow-through in either direction.

This is pure execution context: if a move starts from here, it will likely be sharp precisely because volatility has been suppressed.

Market backdrop: risk-off, extreme fear, and altcoin pressure

The broader crypto market is sitting on a $3.03T total market cap, basically flat over 24 hours, but the composition matters more than the headline:

• Bitcoin dominance: ~56.9% – high, meaning capital is hiding in Bitcoin and away from higher-beta names like Ondo.
• Fear & Greed Index: 16 – extreme fear, which usually marks late stages of a sell-off cycle rather than the beginning.
• DeFi trading fees, especially on Uniswap and other majors, are materially down over 1d/7d/30d in many cases, highlighting thin activity and risk-off positioning in on-chain markets.

In this environment, Ondo crypto is not selling off in isolation; it is part of a broader flight to safety inside crypto. That tends to cap upside attempts in the short term, but it also means panic selling can quickly flip into sharp short-covering rallies once the macro tone stabilizes.

Bullish vs bearish scenarios for ONDO crypto

Short- to medium-term bullish scenario (counter-trend bounce)

The bullish case for Ondo is a mean-reversion move inside a larger downtrend, not a confirmed bottom yet.

What bulls want to see:

• Daily price holds $0.40 support (S1) and refuses to close decisively below the lower Bollinger Band.
• RSI D1 stabilizes around 30 and starts curling up, showing sellers are finally out of steam.
• On H1, price reclaims and holds above the EMA50 around $0.42, with MACD turning slightly positive and ATR ticking up, signaling real participation on the buy side.

If that pattern develops, the natural targets are:

• First resistance zone: $0.45–0.47 (confluence of 20-day EMA and daily mid-BB).
• If momentum is strong, extension toward $0.52–0.54 near the upper Bollinger Band.

What would invalidate the bullish scenario?

• A clean daily close below $0.40 with RSI staying stuck under 30 and no quick reversal.
• H1/H4 candles expanding lower with ATR rising and MACD breaking more deeply negative – that would signal a fresh downside leg, not just a final shakeout.

Short- to medium-term bearish scenario (trend continuation)

The bearish scenario remains the main one as long as the daily trend and EMA structure do not change.

What bears are looking for:

• Daily candle closes below $0.40, turning current support into resistance.
• RSI holds in or below the 30 band without strong bounces – classic grind-lower behavior.
• On H1, price repeatedly fails at $0.42–0.43 (EMA50 region), confirming that every bounce is being sold.

Under this path, ONDO could slide toward:

• A first downside area in the $0.35–0.37 zone, where earlier demand may step in.
• Deeper moves are possible if the broader crypto market breaks down, but for now the chart mainly supports a controlled downtrend, not a collapse.

What would invalidate the bearish scenario?

• A decisive reclaim of the daily EMA20 at ~$0.47, with follow-through rather than a wick, would be a major warning sign for shorts.
• Daily MACD crossing bullish with price holding above $0.47 would signal a genuine regime change instead of just a bounce.

How to think about positioning in Ondo crypto right now

From a trader’s perspective, Ondo is in a mature downtrend within a risk-off market. The daily bias is still bearish, but most of the obvious short trade has already played out. That is exactly when the game becomes more about timing and sizing than about direction.

• Trend-followers are still aligned with the downside as long as price sits under $0.47, but need to be wary of late entries in an oversold tape.
• Mean-reversion traders will be watching the $0.40–0.41 band closely for failed breakdowns, using intraday signals (H1/M15 RSI and volatility expansion) to try to catch a reflex rally.
• Longer-term investors looking at Ondo crypto from a fundamental angle should mainly care about where the daily structure flips. That flip does not start until price reclaims the 20-day EMA with conviction.

Volatility is compressed on the intraday frames, extreme fear is in play across crypto, and ONDO is pinned at the lower daily band. That combination usually does not last long. Expect a pickup in volatility; just do not assume it will favor only one direction. Risk management matters more than the opinion on where it should go.