Bitcoin Open Interest Rises Amid Fear Index and Trading Decline

• Bitcoin futures open interest grew 2% weekly, adding $450 million in leverage over seven days.

• Ethereum saw a $1.4 billion increase, reflecting steady accumulation on major exchanges.

• Centralized platforms like Binance, OKX, and Bybit maintained or expanded positions amid 33.5% of Bitcoin held at a loss.

Bitcoin open interest surged $1 billion in December 2025 despite 40% trading drop & Fear Index at 37. Explore BTC/ETH leverage growth, market sentiment. Essential insights for traders—read now!

What is driving the Bitcoin open interest surge in December 2025?

Bitcoin open interest increased from $22 billion to $23 billion in December 2025, even as trading activity declined by 40%. On-chain data from analytics platforms shows traders added $450 million in fresh leverage over the last seven days, with positions growing 2% weekly. This expansion occurred while Bitcoin’s price hovered near $88,000 and the Fear and Greed Index registered 37, indicating ongoing optimism rather than widespread capitulation.

How has Ethereum open interest contributed to the broader crypto surge?

Ethereum open interest rose sharply by $1.4 billion, moving from $13 billion to $15 billion during the same period. Centralized exchanges including Binance, OKX, and Bybit demonstrated steady accumulation, maintaining or growing futures positions instead of reducing risk amid market weakness. CryptoQuant analysts highlighted that this buildup contradicts typical capitulation patterns, where leverage usually clears out at market bottoms. Instead, positive funding rates rewarded holders of long positions, underscoring persistent trader conviction. Data from Coinglass indicated a minor dip in global cumulative Bitcoin futures open interest from 540,000 BTC to 533,000 BTC, yet overall crypto leverage expanded by 7%, pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum futures totals from $35 billion to $38 billion.

On-chain metrics further reveal that approximately 33.5% of all Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, a situation last seen when BTC traded around $26,000 in October 2023, according to reports from Cryptopolitan on December 29, 2025. Despite this, professional traders on tracked exchanges avoided liquidations, while retail participants increased leverage. Meanwhile, whales withdrew 20,000 Bitcoin, and combined weekly outflows across other digital assets reached $446 million, contributing to $3.2 billion in outflows since October 10. Bitcoin itself recorded $443 million in outflows over the past seven days as its price consolidated below $90,000, trading at approximately $87,375—a 2.2% decline weekly.

Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin, Co-Founder and CEO of CoinBureau, noted on Sunday that Bitcoin has only three days left to avoid closing the year in the red. He stated: “3 days left. 3 days for Bitcoin to recover & close up on the year. If not, this will be the first post-halving year we close in the red. 6.24% required to make this a green candle.” Laser Digital analysts pointed out Bitcoin’s tendency to underperform during U.S. trading hours, attributing it to year-end tax harvesting pressures. John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, described the BTC price chart as promising for future gains but cautioned about near-term sideways or slightly lower movement. He expressed interest in adding long positions between $71,000 and $84,000. Bitcoin investor Mike Alfred affirmed his confidence on Christmas Day, pledging to sell his entire BTC portfolio if it fails to reach $1 million by December 31, 2033.

CryptoQuant emphasized that the December data reflects “conviction without confirmation,” as open interest grew amid reduced trading volumes and whale exits. True market bottoms typically feature leverage deleveraging, not accumulation, suggesting the cryptocurrency market has not yet hit despair levels required for a final washout. This dynamic highlights a divide: institutional and professional money partially retreating while retail traders ramp up exposure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Fear Index of 37 mean for Bitcoin open interest?

The Fear and Greed Index at 37 signals fear in the market, yet Bitcoin open interest surged, showing traders’ stubborn optimism. This level, combined with growing leverage, indicates no capitulation, as positions expanded rather than liquidated during price weakness around $88,000.

Why did crypto trading activity drop 40% despite open interest growth?

Trading activity fell 40% in December 2025 as whales withdrew 20,000 Bitcoin and outflows hit $443 million for BTC weekly. However, open interest rose due to new long positions on exchanges, driven by expectations of recovery rather than panic selling.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin open interest up $1 billion: From $22 billion to $23 billion, adding leverage amid fear.
• Ethereum mirrors trend: $1.4 billion gain to $15 billion total, with exchanges accumulating steadily.
• No capitulation yet: Positive funding and 7% leverage expansion signal trader conviction for rebound.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin open interest surge in December 2025, alongside Ethereum’s gains, underscores resilient trader sentiment despite a 40% trading drop, Fear Index at 37, and significant outflows. Analytics from CryptoQuant and Coinglass reveal leverage building without washout, pointing to potential stabilization. As Bitcoin eyes year-end recovery above $90,000, investors should monitor exchange flows and funding rates for signals of sustained momentum or reversal.