Happy new year!

The December 2025 surveys deliver a reality check no politician can ignore. In Mindanao, Vice President Sara Duterte, scion of the entrenched Duterte dynasty, continues to enjoy ratings that are extraordinary — most of the Mindanao respondents approve and trust her. 

Meanwhile, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., heir to the machinery of a late dictator, fares far worse in the Southern Philippines. In Mindanao, his trust and approval ratings lag behind Duterte’s. Geography, history, and family legacy shape perception with a precision no campaign slogan can hope to match.

The contrast between Luzon and Mindanao is pronounced. Marcos Jr. posts his strongest figures in Luzon, while Duterte rules in the Visayas and Mindanao. Across the archipelago, people appear to distinguish dynasties more than policies: the Marcos name retains some weight in the north, while the Duterte brand commands loyalty in the south that borders on instinct.

Mindanao’s near-unanimous embrace of Duterte shows a fundamental truth in Filipino politics: dynastic loyalty often outweighs national office, especially when paired with local identity, effective patronage, and cultural affinity. Marcos Jr., despite holding the highest office, is distrusted across the Visayas and Mindanao, while in the rest of Luzon, his approval is modestly positive.

And so, the Philippines remains a country where regionalism, dynastic history, and governance scandals shape public perception more than rhetoric or nationalism. The Dutertes’ dominance of Mindanao is no accident. It is the product of years of local embedding.

The Marcos dynasty faces the long shadow of its past and a citizenry increasingly wary of centralized authority. To ignore this is to misunderstand the geography of discontent and the perilous calculus of leadership in the archipelago.

Sure winner?

So, is Sara Duterte a sure winner in the 2028 presidential race? Not so fast.

To call her 2028 ascension inevitable is to indulge in a seductive presumption. The public may loathe Marcos Jr., and rightly so, for his administration swims in corruption and he bears full command responsibility.

Yet Marcos Jr. is not running in 2028. He has already won, courtesy of Sara’s wholehearted support in 2022. She delivered the Marcoses back to Malacañang and now treats him like she is going to be her rival. He is not. The imagined dynastic duel is laughable. Bongbong Marcos and Inday Sara were the UniTeam of 2022, a team that promised unity but delivered chaos. They are the same banana, birds of the same feather, who officially stopped “feathering” each other in 2024.

In this context, Sara Duterte is a blind boxer in the political ring. Gloves up, circling, swinging with confidence born of dynasty, local loyalty, and the ecstatic applause of Mindanao, she lands punches on shadows. She imagines a rival, yet the man she sees has already won the fight she helped stage. She brought him back to Malacañang; now she pummels a ghost. The absurdity is delicious.

Meanwhile, the real threats to her ambitions linger patiently. She faces a plunder complaint and an impeachment complaint looms on the horizon — all of it waits like an unrelenting referee ready to ring the bell. She has danced around questions about her use of public funds for some time now, but even the nimblest footwork cannot escape history’s memory. One day, the taxpayers will demand justice, and no applause, no local adoration, will protect her.

Mindanao adores her; Luzon tolerates her; the Visayas watches closely, supportive but measured. Marcos Jr., though occupying the highest office in the land, is distrusted almost everywhere else. Yet in her imagination, the fight is a dynastic duel between the Dutertes and Marcoses. Again, it is not. 

History offers its warnings in the case of former vice president Jejomar Binay who, like Sara, had been seen as a sure winner in the 2016 presidential elections. But he lost — he was beaten black and blue in the elections by Sara’s father, Rodrigo, someone who was not even seen as a political heavyweight a year or months before the 2016 elections.

Corruption issues relentlessly hounded Binay’s attempt at the presidency. Binay soared in the polls until corruption scandals dragged him into a downward spiral starting in the latter part of 2015.

The snowballing anti-corruption movement may be unwittingly preparing Sara’s real enemy — a non-heavyweight who could deliver the K.O. punch just like in 2016. Every exposé and every protest sharpen the public’s eye. By spotlighting graft and demanding accountability, the movement trains voters to scrutinize dynastic privilege and question the use of public funds.

Sara’s true adversary will be the awakened electorate itself, primed to see through appearances, to connect the dots, and to punish complacency. Every moralistic drumbeat today may become a hammer tomorrow, striking down the illusions of inevitability she so relies on. 

In the end, a blind boxer cannot evade the consequences of miscalculations. Sara may soon find out that history is waiting in the shadows, ready to land the punch she cannot see coming. Pastilan. – Rappler.com