Bitcoin Slide and Stock Plunge Push Strategy Toward Q4 2025 Losses

TLDR

• Strategy Inc. is expecting a fourth-quarter 2025 loss following a sharp decline in Bitcoin prices.
• MSTR shares dropped by 48% in 2025, which erased most of the earlier gains for the year.
• The 24% fall in Bitcoin triggered fair-value accounting losses on Strategy’s balance sheet.
• The company sold more shares in December to boost liquidity during increased market volatility.
• Strategy’s enterprise value is now close to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy Inc. expects a fourth-quarter 2025 loss following a 24% Bitcoin drop and a 48% fall in MSTR shares, which together have erased much of the earlier annual gains, impacted investor confidence, and triggered mandatory fair-value accounting adjustments reflecting unrealized losses on Bitcoin holdings in its quarterly results.

MSTR shares fall about 48% in 2025, cutting the premium once tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury model

MSTR stock fell nearly 48% during 2025, shedding most of the gains posted earlier in the year. The company’s shares now trade at one-quarter of their November 2024 peak. That marks a drop of around 70% from their highest point.

This correction sharply reduced the premium investors once assigned to the company’s Bitcoin-heavy treasury approach. During December, Strategy sold more shares to strengthen its cash reserves. This action came as markets saw a rise in volatility.

Strategy had previously benefitted from investor demand for crypto-related exposure through equities. But the decline in Bitcoin and MSTR shares has tested that trend. The downturn cut into the firm’s overall enterprise value.

Q4 2025 losses emerge as Bitcoin’s 24% drop triggers fair-value accounting impacts on earnings

Bitcoin dropped around 24% in Q4 2025 and closed the year near $87,600. This placed it just above the lower end of Strategy’s expected trading band. The firm had outlined a $85,000 to $110,000 range for Q4 Bitcoin performance.

Since adopting fair-value accounting, the company must report paper losses from Bitcoin’s price decline. This change directly impacts Strategy’s earnings presentation. As a result, Q4 financial results are expected to reflect the decline.

Earlier in the year, Strategy projected full-year operating outcomes between a $7 billion loss and a $9.5 billion profit. That wide range depended entirely on Bitcoin’s market price at year-end. The final numbers now lean toward the loss side.

Enterprise value nears Bitcoin holdings as volatility tests confidence in corporate BTC balance sheets

Strategy’s enterprise value has now drawn closer to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. This convergence reduces the premium once placed on its Bitcoin-proxy model. Investors now evaluate the firm closer to the asset value it holds.

The change has raised questions about Bitcoin-treasury strategies during declining price periods. Analyst commentary has focused on market behavior and investor reactions. Peter Schiff noted ongoing pressure on Strategy’s outlook for 2026.

Despite these headwinds, Strategy continued to increase its Bitcoin position. Earlier this week, it purchased around $109 million in Bitcoin. The move aligns with its long-held approach, despite near-term valuation drops.

Institutional exposure to Bitcoin remains active, with ETFs still attracting capital. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF closed 2025 among the best-performing funds. Strategy remains invested in its Bitcoin thesis, regardless of short-term price fluctuations.

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