The four-year cycle has expired, and 30 institutions are betting on a new crypto landscape in 2026.

Author: Cathy

As 2025 draws to a close, the world’s top financial institutions have unusually voiced a highly unified message.

From a16z, Coinbase, and Messari to Grayscale and Galaxy Digital, from BlackRock and Fidelity to JP Morgan and Standard Chartered Bank, more than 30 institutions have pointed to the same conclusion in their respective 2026 outlook reports: the crypto asset industry is undergoing a historic leap from "adolescent restlessness" to "adult maturity".

If the 2021-2022 cycle was driven by retail speculation, high leverage, and narrative bubbles, then institutions generally believe that 2026 will be a year of substantial growth built by regulatory clarity, macro hedging needs, and the implementation of technological effectiveness. This stage has a professional name—the "industrialization stage."

However, disagreements also lurk beneath the surface of consensus. Top institutions are fiercely debating whether Bitcoin's volatility will fall below Nvidia's, whether the threat of quantum computing is imminent, and who will win the battle for AI payment layers.

So what will happen in 2026? Where will the money flow? And how should ordinary investors respond?

Say goodbye to the halving myth, ETFs are reshaping the rules of the game.

For a long time, the pulse of the crypto market has been beating in sync with Bitcoin's halving every four years. But in the 2026 outlook, a disruptive view is emerging: the traditional four-year cycle theory may have become obsolete.

In its report, "Digital Asset Outlook 2026: The Dawn of the Institutional Era," Grayscale put forward a highly provocative view: 2026 will officially mark the end of the so-called "four-year cycle" theory. With the increasing prevalence of spot ETFs and the improvement of compliance frameworks, the structure of market participants has undergone a fundamental change. The dramatic boom-and-bust cycles of the past, dominated by retail investor sentiment and the halving narrative, are being replaced by systemic capital flows from institutional investors based on asset allocation models.

This sustained, unemotional inflow of funds will smooth out extreme market volatility, making crypto assets perform more like mature macro assets.

Coinbase offered a compelling historical analogy: the current market environment is more like "1996" than "1999." 1996 was the early stage of internet technology truly penetrating commerce and driving productivity gains, not the eve of a bubble burst. Institutional funds are no longer engaging in mercenary-style short-term arbitrage, but rather entering the market as long-term hedges against fiscal deficits and currency devaluation.

Even more interestingly, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, bluntly stated that 2026 could be "a boring year" for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin may still reach new all-time highs, its price behavior will be more like that of mature macro assets such as gold.

This "boredom" is actually a sign of asset maturity, implying reduced downside risk and broader institutional acceptance. Bitwise also listed "Bitcoin volatility will be lower than Nvidia's" as one of its top ten predictions for 2026.

Investors who try to rely on historical halving data to make a definitive judgment may face a failing model in 2026.

Stablecoins and RWA: A Certainty Opportunity in 2026

If the macro narrative lays the foundation for capital inflows, then the upgrading of financial infrastructure determines the direction of those inflows. 2026 is seen by major institutions as the first year that stablecoins and RWAs (real-world assets) will move from proof-of-concept to large-scale commercial use.

The explosive growth of stablecoins

In its "2026 Key Trends" report, a16z crypto defines stablecoins as the "internet's base settlement layer." They believe that stablecoins will transcend their role as mere intermediaries in trading platforms, directly embedding themselves into local payment networks and merchant tools through QR codes, global wallets, and card integration.

The data is staggering: by 2025, stablecoin trading volume has reached $9 trillion, a scale comparable to Visa and PayPal.

Coinbase's forecast is even more aggressive. Using a stochastic model, they predict that the total market capitalization of stablecoins could reach $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028, with 2026 being the steepest point of this growth curve. Coinbase specifically highlights new use cases for stablecoins in cross-border transaction settlement, remittances, and payroll payment platforms.

In its "2026 Digital Asset Outlook Report," The Block introduced the concept of "Stablechains." To meet the extreme demands of commercial payments for high throughput and low latency, the market will see the emergence of dedicated blockchain networks optimized specifically for stablecoin execution and settlement.

Galaxy Digital predicts market consolidation. While traditional banking giants like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are exploring issuing their own stablecoins, the stablecoin market in 2026 will consolidate into one or two dominant players due to distribution channels and liquidity network effects. Furthermore, Galaxy boldly predicts that stablecoin trading volume will officially surpass the traditional US ACH (Automated Clearing House) system.

RWA's thousandfold growth

Grayscale predicts that, driven by regulation and institutions, the size of tokenized assets will grow by 1000x by 2030.

Coinbase has proposed the concept of "Tokenization 2.0," with "atomic composability" at its core. In 2026, simply tokenizing government bonds will not be enough; the real value lies in the fact that these tokenized government bonds can be instantly used as collateral to lend liquidity in DeFi protocols, and their lending value will far exceed the margin framework of traditional finance.

Jay Yu, a junior partner at Pantera Capital, predicts that tokenized gold will rise to become the dominant asset in the RWA (Real Estate Tokenized Asset) space by 2026. As investor concerns intensify regarding the structural problems of the US dollar, on-chain gold, as an asset possessing both physical attributes and digital liquidity, will experience explosive growth.

When AI agents learn to spend money

By 2026, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain will no longer be limited to the hype surrounding "AI concept coins," but will enter a deeper stage of infrastructure interoperability. Institutions unanimously believe that blockchain will become the financial track for AI agents.

a16z crypto identifies "agent economics" as a core idea for 2026. They raise a central question: how do AI agents prove "who I am" when they begin autonomously trading, placing orders, and invoking on-chain services? To address this, a16z proposes a new compliance framework: "Know Your Agent" (KYA). This could become a prerequisite for AI agents interacting with the blockchain, similar to human KYC.

Pantera Capital offers a more concrete prediction: they believe that business intelligence agents based on the x402 protocol will emerge. x402 is seen as a new payment standard or endpoint that allows AI agents to perform both micropayments and regular payments.

In this area, Pantera is particularly optimistic about Solana, believing that it will surpass BaseChain in terms of "US-grade" transaction volume on x402 and become the preferred settlement layer for AI agents.

Messari also listed "Crypto x AI" as one of its seven core components in its "2026 Crypto Paper." They described a future of "Agentic Commerce," where decentralized infrastructure will support the training and execution of AI models, a market that could reach $30 trillion by 2030.

Grayscale emphasized the role of blockchain as a "cure" for the risks of AI centralization. As AI models become increasingly powerful and controlled by a few giants, the demand for decentralized computing, decentralized data verification, and proof of content authenticity will surge.

a16z proposed the concept of "Staked Media." Faced with the proliferation of AI-generated false content, future content creators (whether human or AI) may need to stake capital to endorse their views. If the content is proven false or malicious, the staked capital will be forfeited.

Undercurrents beneath the consensus

Despite strong consensus, sharp disagreements exist among institutions on certain key issues, which often become the source of excess returns or risks.

Disagreement 1: Outbreak vs. Silence

Standard Chartered Bank maintains its aggressively bullish outlook based on tight supply and demand. Standard Chartered's 2026 BTC price target is $150,000 (down from the previous $300,000), and $225,000 in 2027.

However, Galaxy Digital and Bitwise paint a starkly different picture: a market with compressed volatility, flat price action, and even "boring" trends. Galaxy predicts that BTC prices may fluctuate widely between $50,000 and $250,000. If Galaxy is right, then trading strategies that rely on high volatility for profit will become completely ineffective by 2026, and the market will shift towards rewards through DeFi yields and arbitrage.

Second point of contention: The specter of quantum computing

Pantera Capital has put forward a potentially disruptive narrative: “quantum panic.” While it may still be years before quantum computers can crack Bitcoin private keys, Pantera believes that a breakthrough in error-correcting qubits by 2026 could trigger a panic sell-off in the market, forcing the Bitcoin community to urgently discuss resistance to quantum forks.

Coinbase holds the opposite view, believing that this is just noise in 2026 and will not affect the valuation.

Disagreement 3: The battle over AI payment layers

In the battle for AI-powered proxy payment layers, Pantera is clearly betting that Solana will surpass Base, citing its advantage in low-cost micropayments. The Block and Coinbase, on the other hand, tend to emphasize the overall rise of Stablechains (dedicated stablecoin chains) or Layer 2 ecosystems. This foreshadows a fierce competition in 2026 for "AI-native currency layers."

Survival Rules of the Industrial Age

Based on the 2026 outlooks of major top institutions, we can clearly see that the crypto industry is undergoing a transformation similar to that of the internet between 1996 and 2000: from a fringe, ideology-driven experiment to an inseparable "industrial component" of the global financial and technology stack.

For investors and practitioners, the rules of survival will change in 2026:

Focus on flow rather than narrative

With the four-year cycle nearing its end, relying solely on the halving narrative will no longer be effective. Focusing on ETF fund flows, stablecoin issuance, and corporate balance sheet allocations will become more crucial. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, points to the fragility of the US economy and the projected federal debt exceeding $38 trillion in its 2026 outlook. This macroeconomic pressure will force investors and institutions to seek alternative stores of value.

Embracing compliance and privacy

The GENIUS Act, expected to be fully implemented in 2026, will provide a federal-level regulatory framework for payment-based stablecoins. The emergence of the KYA standard signifies the end of the era of "unregulated growth."

However, both Grayscale and Coinbase have astutely recognized the resurgence of privacy technologies. With the large-scale entry of institutions, they are unwilling to expose trade secrets on completely transparent public blockchains. Therefore, compliant privacy solutions based on zero-knowledge proofs and fully homomorphic encryption will become a necessity. Grayscale even specifically mentioned that the established privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) may experience a revaluation due to this reassessment of "decentralized privacy."

Finding real utility

Whether it's AI-assisted automatic payments or RWA's collateralized lending, the winners in 2026 will be protocols that can generate real revenue and cash flow, rather than empty tokens that merely have governance rights.

Delphi Digital defines 2026 as a key turning point—a year in which global central bank policies move from divergence to convergence. The report predicts that as the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening (QT) and lowers the federal funds rate below 3%, global liquidity will once again flood the market. Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive inflation hedge, will directly benefit from this improved macroeconomic environment.

summary

Looking ahead to 2026 from the end of 2025, we see not only cyclical fluctuations in an industry, but also a fundamental shift in a paradigm.

When Chris Kuiper, VP of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, suggested that more countries might include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves in the future, it was not merely an economic decision, but also a geopolitical game. If one country begins accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve asset, other countries will face immense "fear of missing out" (FOMO) pressure to follow suit in order to remain competitive.

By 2026, the crypto industry will no longer be just "magical internet currency"; it is becoming part of the world.

Only those projects and investors who can find true value in the wave of industrialization, adhere to long-term allocation, and embrace compliance and innovation will be able to stand at the starting point of the next decade.