$2.40 for XRP? That’s Where Bull Run Dies, Warns Popular Indicator

XRP’s double-digit weekly gain at the start of 2026 has the holders of the fourth-largest cryptocurrency cheering again. However, anyone flipping bullish at $2.40 is staring at a wall that has rejected price action all year.

That wall is the 20-week Bollinger Band midline, as presented by TradingView, a key moving average that was just tested for the first time since September. Back then, XRP faked a breakout, reaching $3.10 before collapsing 40% in less than five weeks. 

Earlier in May, the same level stalled a three-week rally and triggered months of sideways decline. Now it is back, and it has not gotten any easier to overcome.

The latest rally is technical, not narrative-driven. There is no new catalyst — no ETF surprise, no Ripple headline, no large-scale investor activity — just oversold conditions meeting speculative inflows. The bounce started below $1.80, accelerated into a short squeeze, and now sits inside a zone where previous upside was erased.

Sentiment breaker for XRP

The Bollinger Bands are not doing any magic, but the midline has worked as a sentiment breaker for XRP. When the price of the token trades below the midline, rallies get capped. When the price is above the midline, dips get bought.

This week offers a coin flip against a level that punished latecoming buyers twice last year.

If XRP does not quickly clear $2.45, this weekly candle will become bait. It is the kind of move that looks bullish just long enough to allow for exit liquidity, until the next red weekly bar appears and proves current euphoria wrong.