Russian Oil exports plunge, revenue falls sharply – Commerzbank

Russian Oil exports are declining sharply, impacting the nation’s export and budget revenues. In the four weeks to 4 January 2026, Russia shipped 3.43 million barrels a day, a decrease by c.440,000 barrels from the period ending 21 December 2025. The value of Moscow’s exports averaged $960 million a week, representing a 10% decrease from the preceding period, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

Urals Crude drops below $35/bbl amid US sanctions

“The article includes a telling chart in which Bloomberg estimated Oil export sales from various regions of the country: aggregate export revenue fell almost exponentially in recent weeks to levels last seen when the Oil price cap was first introduced in 2022. This time around, the new US sanctions on systemic Oil companies are likely to have been responsible for the drop. At present, Urals Crude is trading below $35/bbl in both the Baltic and Black Sea, about 60% of its price as of 1 October 2025.”

“Russia’s current account was reported to have improved slightly in Q3 of last year, but this is misleading as it pertains to a prior period. In any case, the current account may or may not actually deteriorate as a result of the Oil revenue drop, because GDP growth has also sharply decelerated (to just 0.1% y/y as of November, the slowest in 2025), which can boost the surplus by dampening import demand.”

“As a result of visibly weaker fundamentals, USD/RUB is now trading noticeably higher than a month ago. In order to conserve resources, the CBR will also reduce FX sales during H1 2026 to RUB 4.6bn per day (down from RUB 8.9bn a day through H2 2025). The combination of reduced Oil revenue, smaller FX sales by the CBR, and reduced investment by the wealth fund (NWF) is likely to result in a weaker rouble exchange rate during 2026.”