Will 90% No-Cut Probability Pressure BTC?

Bitcoin price continues to trade within a defined range as macro pressure intersects with weakening momentum. The most recent development in the BTC price was the recovery of the price to the $90,000 mark towards the major supply zone. Meanwhile, the markets have set insurmountable odds on a Federal Reserve rate hold, eliminating a major support in the forms of liquidity. 

Polymarket Signals A Fed Pause Headwind

According to Polymarket, there is a 90 % chance for the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged in the January FOMC meeting. This is not an indication of uncertainty, but it is a sign of strong agreement. However, this matters for Bitcoin price because recent upside attempts relied on easing expectations, not confirmed liquidity expansion or policy support.

Rates are maintained on a level that maintains real rates high and tightness of financial conditions historically lowers speculative risk-taking. Capital focuses on conservation, rather than growth when liquidity remains tight. As a result, Bitcoin price loses the macro tailwind that previously supported breakout attempts.

The probability curve reinforces this setup. There is only a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, and further reduction has very low probability. This alignment curtails potential and prevents volatility driven reaction to upside.

Hence, the next FOMC meeting is a ceiling and not a catalyst. And therefore, as long as rate expectations remain anchored, Bitcoin price faces a macro headwind that favors consolidation or retracement instead of directional acceleration.

Expert Flags Institutional Support But Weak Momentum

Analyst Ted pointed to the inability of Bitcoin to re-enter the supply zone of $94,000-95,000 besides the fact that BTC remains above $92,000. According to the analyst, Bitcoin price remains in a favorable position to reclaim this zone so long so it remains above $92,000, citing the bullish  MSCI announcement. 

The MSCI recently made a decision to retain Strategy and other crypto-related companies, which boosts institutional credibility and not the cyclical momentum. The decision minimizes the risk of crash caused by validating exposure, but it fails to introduce new demand and does not counteract constraining macro conditions. At the time of press, BTC market value sits around $91,855, placing Bitcoin price between active supply and responsive demand. 

Notably, downside is cushioned by institutional support and upside by macro pressure. This equilibrium offers greater sensitivity to immediate levels, where the next directional result will be as a result of seller control or buyer defense. However, despite the analyst’s bullish views, Bitcoin could break below the 90,000 level again before a rebound.

Range-Bound Structure Shapes Bitcoin Price Outlook

Bitcoin price continues to trade within a defined range, capped by supply near $94,000 and supported by demand around $84,000. The midpoint of the price is the 90,000 mark, and the price keeps stalling as buyers and sellers take control of each other.

BTC price has recently broken above 90,000 but it soon hit the supply and it resembled the rejections in early and mid-December. Momentum lost at that zone which verified active distribution and not trend continuation.

Price turns around to take on a new level at $90,000 where the previous co-ordination yielded responsive demand. In case sellers press and the failure of $90,000 occurs, the price of BTC is likely to test the level of $86,582. This level had previously brought a sharp rebound owing to the concentrated buying interest.

Further shift to $84,000 would be potential in case selling is accelerated. Controlled momentum loss however gives preference to $86,582 as the best defense. A firm hold there would reset structure and support a rebound toward range highs supporting a recovery towards long-term Bitcoin price forecast.

Final Remark 

Ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, Bitcoin price is more likely to rotate back into its established range than sustain a breakout. As markets are pricing in high chances of a Fed rate hold, liquidity conditions are tight. Such events not only constrain upside continuation but also discourage panic selling. 

Consequently, BTC price is biased towards controlled retracement. The level at which a rebound towards range highs will most likely occur after the FOMC is the $86,582 level.