ETH Coinbase premium returns to February 2025 lows after brief respite

After a brief respite, the ETH Coinbase premium was erased again, and the index fell to a ten-month low. The recent downturn has stoked doubts about the recovery of ETH above $3,000. 

ETH lost most of its premium gap on Coinbase, as the indicator fell to a ten-month low. For most of the past few months, the Coinbase gap remained minimal. 

The decline came as ETH traded at $3,110.57, following a general downturn for BTC and the crypto market.

An ETH breakout is seen as being dependent on returning US spot buyers. At the same time, derivative traders remain cautious. 

ETH Coinbase premium signals institutional interest

Demand and price discovery on Coinbase reflect the sentiment and demand for US traders. Binance and other exchanges represent global sentiment and the effect of retail traders. Recent data may also serve as an indicator of ETF demand, which goes through the custodial services of Coinbase. 

Following a weak ending of 2025, the Coinbase premium gap fell to levels not seen since February 2025. The gap was also sustainably negative for weeks, indicating the accumulated selling pressure and weak buying interest. 

At the same time, Binance remained a major hub of activity, while ETH was still silently accumulated by international whales. The lack of buying enthusiasm is keeping ETH range-bound, sinking below the $4,700 peak. 

The low sentiment and lack of demand are keeping ETH bound in a range below $3,300, still unable to break out to a higher range. 

Additionally, crowd sentiment for ETH remains more bearish compared to whales and smart money. 

The ETH fear and greed index remains neutral at 49 points, though the market is still waiting on the sidelines for a directional move. ETH open interest weakened to $17.78B after the most recent round of liquidations, and the market may take time to rebuild positions. 

Can ETH still break out? 

ETH has shown relatively fast shifts in sentiment and derivative trading. Accumulation and staking continue, as well as the expansion and deepening of DeFi apps. 

ETH has remained irrationally bullish, despite the rapid downturns. Based on its relative strength index, ETH hovers between recommendations to sell or wait.

Currently, some whales have managed to decrease their support price at $2,800. Liquidation levels in DeFi are much lower.

Treasury companies are sitting on unrealized losses, but they have signaled their commitment not to sell. ETH retains some downside protection from capitulation, but lacks the hype to break out into a new bull cycle. 

In 2026, ETH is also meeting growing competition from Solana as the major activity hub, with a growing influence in DeFi activity. Despite this, Ethereum retains its utility role as a legacy network, still offering the easiest access to liquidity.  

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