Kevin Warsh Leads Fed Chair Forecasts as Trump Signals Decision is Made

TLDR

• Kevin Warsh leads with 42% in Polymarket Fed chair forecast rankings.
• Trump says Fed successor is chosen but remains undisclosed for now.
• Warsh served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011.
• Kevin Hassett closely follows Warsh with 37% probability in forecasts.

Kevin Warsh is emerging as the frontrunner to become the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. This follows Donald Trump’s statement that he has already selected a successor for Jerome Powell but is not yet ready to reveal the individual’s identity. Forecasting platforms show Warsh leading the field as speculation continues to build ahead of the May 2026 transition.

Donald Trump Confirms Selection But Keeps Name Confidential

Donald Trump recently confirmed he has chosen who he wants to lead the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. While he refrained from disclosing the name, his statement has triggered renewed attention around possible candidates.

Speaking to reporters, Trump said, “I’ve already picked the right person,” adding that the announcement would come “at the right time.” The comment followed increased speculation around former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, whose name has gained traction on public forecasting platforms.

Trump was also asked about Kevin Hassett, to which he replied that it would be unwise to comment but acknowledged Hassett as a preferred candidate. Meanwhile, reports indicated that asset manager Rick Rieder was invited to the White House for a conversation, drawing further attention to the selection process.

Forecasting Platforms Show Warsh in the Lead

According to Polymarket, Kevin Warsh currently holds a 42% probability of being selected as the next Federal Reserve chair. Kevin Hassett follows closely with 37%. Other names such as Christopher Waller and Rick Rieder remain in the mix but trail behind.

Polymarket aggregates positions from participants based on real-money forecasting contracts, offering insight into public sentiment around key political and economic decisions. Warsh’s rise follows Trump’s latest remarks, which observers have linked to candidates with prior administration experience and compatible policy views.

This is not the first time Warsh’s name has appeared in discussions about the Fed chair. Reports from Trump’s first term indicated that Warsh had previously been considered for the role before Powell was selected.

Warsh and Hassett Present Distinct Economic Approaches

Kevin Warsh served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011, during which he contributed to efforts during the financial crisis. He previously worked at Morgan Stanley and served as an economic advisor under President George W. Bush. Warsh has since criticized current monetary policy, advocating for structural changes in decision-making processes.

Kevin Hassett currently serves as Director of the National Economic Council. He chaired the Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump administration and has held positions in both academic institutions and economic policy bodies. Hassett has emphasized that his policy choices would be based on economic data and not political pressure.

Both candidates are seen as favoring interest rate reductions when compared to current levels, though Warsh has focused more on inflation concerns, while Hassett supports further rate cuts to support economic growth.

Public Reaction and Policy Debate Continue

The shift in focus toward Warsh has influenced market commentary, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rate changes. A future Fed chair seen as supporting lower rates could change borrowing costs and capital allocation across financial markets.

Crypto and equity markets often respond to such policy outlooks. As the Federal Reserve influences liquidity and risk sentiment, participants in digital assets and fixed income continue watching these developments closely.

Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren raised concerns over the Fed’s independence, warning that close political alignment could affect neutral decision-making. Despite this, current forecasts remain centered on monetary policy direction rather than political ties alone. As Powell’s term approaches its end, Trump’s eventual confirmation is awaited, with Kevin Warsh now viewed by many as the most likely successor.

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